* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ENRIQUE EP052021 06/27/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 76 74 72 68 61 53 45 37 31 32 32 34 35 36 38 V (KT) LAND 80 79 76 74 72 68 61 53 45 37 33 31 29 28 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 80 78 74 71 68 63 58 52 45 37 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 10 8 5 6 6 7 10 9 15 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 1 0 -1 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 80 81 56 48 29 35 89 96 118 114 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.3 27.9 27.1 25.8 25.5 23.9 23.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 147 145 145 140 132 119 116 99 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 3 3 4 3 4 3 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 79 80 79 75 76 70 70 70 69 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 14 12 11 10 9 9 8 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 80 106 89 81 74 86 59 49 29 37 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 83 108 94 68 54 71 23 10 4 31 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -11 -4 -4 0 0 0 -2 -6 -7 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 99 91 85 90 115 179 228 144 27 -30 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.2 19.6 20.0 20.4 21.0 21.5 22.3 23.0 23.7 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.6 105.9 106.1 106.5 106.8 107.3 107.8 108.5 109.4 110.2 110.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 11 10 9 10 8 3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 5 CX,CY: 1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -8. -12. -16. -20. -22. -23. -25. -26. -28. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. -15. -17. -18. -17. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -6. -8. -12. -19. -27. -35. -43. -49. -48. -48. -46. -45. -44. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 18.7 105.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052021 ENRIQUE 06/27/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.24 1.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.59 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.62 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 72.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.32 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.6% 20.7% 17.7% 16.6% 10.3% 13.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 3.5% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 8.1% 6.4% 5.7% 3.5% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052021 ENRIQUE 06/27/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##