* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ENRIQUE EP052021 06/28/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 80 80 79 78 73 64 57 48 39 29 29 30 31 32 33 33 V (KT) LAND 80 80 80 79 78 73 64 57 48 36 31 31 31 32 33 34 35 V (KT) LGEM 80 78 75 72 70 65 59 53 46 35 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 11 6 6 8 6 5 6 9 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 -3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 75 47 41 21 24 57 76 71 100 130 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.5 26.1 26.3 25.5 23.6 19.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 146 146 145 142 137 122 125 117 98 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -53.5 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 4 4 3 4 2 3 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 80 77 74 73 72 67 69 65 62 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 13 11 9 10 9 8 9 7 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 94 84 73 67 76 68 59 44 29 25 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 103 91 65 51 48 23 -1 13 6 6 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -5 0 0 1 1 -1 -4 -2 -2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 71 73 84 117 156 207 158 42 8 -50 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.9 20.3 20.6 20.9 21.5 22.3 23.2 24.2 25.2 26.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.8 106.2 106.5 106.8 107.1 107.6 108.3 109.0 110.1 111.5 113.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 9 9 10 9 5 0 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -4. -8. -12. -17. -23. -25. -26. -28. -30. -32. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -6. -7. -11. -14. -16. -15. -14. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -1. -2. -7. -16. -23. -32. -41. -51. -51. -50. -49. -48. -47. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 19.4 105.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052021 ENRIQUE 06/28/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.23 1.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.54 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.64 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.91 4.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 94.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.35 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.2% 22.9% 18.9% 17.5% 11.1% 13.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.7% 9.3% 4.5% 2.0% 0.8% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.4% 10.9% 7.8% 6.5% 4.0% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 8.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052021 ENRIQUE 06/28/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##