* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ENRIQUE EP052021 06/28/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 78 77 75 71 64 58 48 41 33 33 33 35 36 37 38 V (KT) LAND 80 79 78 77 75 71 64 58 48 37 34 34 34 36 37 38 39 V (KT) LGEM 80 79 76 74 71 66 61 54 47 35 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 4 6 6 6 2 7 4 12 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 0 0 -1 -2 1 -1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 45 22 354 357 4 30 74 121 106 143 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.1 26.0 26.2 25.9 24.8 21.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 144 143 142 133 122 124 121 109 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 4 5 3 4 3 3 2 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 76 74 73 74 67 67 66 64 62 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 11 11 10 9 8 8 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 79 75 63 74 88 68 59 38 34 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 91 49 53 61 47 13 22 -1 27 23 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 0 0 1 1 -1 -5 -3 -3 -1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 81 83 105 137 174 203 114 12 20 -48 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.2 20.5 20.8 21.1 21.9 22.7 23.7 24.8 25.6 26.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.2 106.5 106.7 107.0 107.2 107.8 108.5 109.6 110.5 111.5 112.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 9 9 9 8 3 0 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. -0. -5. -9. -13. -17. -22. -24. -25. -27. -29. -30. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -12. -14. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -16. -22. -32. -39. -47. -47. -47. -45. -44. -43. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 19.8 106.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052021 ENRIQUE 06/28/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.22 1.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.48 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.72 4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 137.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 -3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.8% 19.7% 17.7% 16.7% 10.6% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 4.2% 2.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 8.0% 6.6% 5.9% 3.6% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 9.0% 0.0% 2.0% 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052021 ENRIQUE 06/28/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##