* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ENRIQUE EP052021 06/28/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 61 58 57 55 53 47 38 32 24 17 16 16 15 16 17 17 V (KT) LAND 65 61 58 57 55 53 43 38 34 31 27 27 26 26 27 28 28 V (KT) LGEM 65 60 55 52 50 47 39 35 32 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 3 5 1 2 5 4 10 9 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 0 0 -2 1 0 1 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 359 25 13 46 334 52 106 125 162 145 179 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 27.9 27.5 27.0 26.7 26.3 25.8 24.8 22.5 21.6 20.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 140 136 131 129 125 119 109 84 74 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 4 3 2 1 1 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 71 71 70 67 65 67 67 62 59 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 13 11 11 9 6 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 58 69 58 52 49 32 36 22 33 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 56 34 5 20 16 -1 30 6 10 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 1 -1 -8 -3 -1 -1 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 147 184 222 245 216 81 -30 0 -15 -10 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.6 20.9 21.1 21.4 21.7 22.6 23.3 24.2 24.7 25.1 25.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.1 107.4 107.7 108.0 108.2 109.1 109.9 110.5 111.5 112.0 112.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 8 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -7. -11. -16. -18. -21. -23. -26. -28. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -10. -13. -14. -15. -14. -13. -11. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -8. -10. -12. -18. -27. -33. -41. -48. -49. -49. -50. -49. -48. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 20.6 107.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052021 ENRIQUE 06/28/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.28 2.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.89 5.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 4.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 132.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 -3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.35 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.1% 17.5% 16.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 5.9% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052021 ENRIQUE 06/28/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##