* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ENRIQUE EP052021 06/29/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 41 39 39 37 30 21 20 18 17 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 42 41 39 39 33 30 29 27 26 24 23 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 40 37 34 33 29 27 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 4 2 1 4 7 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 0 0 1 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 21 353 327 65 82 140 130 158 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.3 26.8 27.2 27.6 25.7 23.5 20.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 135 130 134 139 119 95 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 3 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 69 65 63 65 63 58 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 8 8 9 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 53 36 38 46 27 36 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 4 -1 -5 22 19 37 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 -3 -3 -9 -3 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 199 214 158 87 15 0 -39 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.4 21.9 22.3 22.8 23.2 24.2 24.9 25.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.5 107.9 108.3 108.8 109.3 110.3 111.4 112.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 3 1 2 4 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -0. -0. -3. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -6. -6. -8. -15. -24. -25. -27. -28. -29. -30. -30. -29. -28. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 21.4 107.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052021 ENRIQUE 06/29/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.46 3.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.86 5.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 134.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 -3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.29 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 17.2% 15.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 5.8% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052021 ENRIQUE 06/29/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##