* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ENRIQUE EP052021 06/30/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 31 30 25 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 31 28 29 26 23 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 31 27 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 5 8 9 16 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 150 143 152 133 135 170 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.1 27.1 26.1 24.8 21.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 144 133 122 108 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 3 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 65 62 60 59 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 20 9 11 21 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 21 24 24 35 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -3 -2 -1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 49 41 32 9 -40 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.0 24.5 24.9 25.2 25.4 25.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.4 109.9 110.4 110.9 111.4 112.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 7 3 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 12. 11. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -5. -10. -14. -17. -19. -22. -24. -25. -27. -28. -28. -29. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 24.0 109.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052021 ENRIQUE 06/30/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.52 3.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.62 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 154.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 -3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.82 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.21 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 15.1% 13.5% 11.9% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 5.2% 4.7% 4.0% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052021 ENRIQUE 06/30/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##