* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELSA AL052021 07/01/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 47 51 56 60 61 64 65 68 73 77 79 81 82 80 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 47 51 56 60 61 64 65 68 56 62 64 58 40 31 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 43 46 51 54 56 58 64 73 62 66 68 71 43 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 10 6 10 6 9 5 6 8 17 14 15 10 17 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 3 5 5 10 11 8 -1 0 0 3 3 4 -3 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 338 357 2 342 319 12 325 297 275 289 292 301 290 297 300 305 259 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.3 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.6 28.2 29.1 29.6 29.5 29.5 28.2 28.0 29.1 28.3 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 146 142 142 141 136 143 156 162 161 161 140 135 152 141 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 141 146 142 142 141 136 143 154 154 150 152 126 116 131 122 111 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.8 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 -53.7 -53.9 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.9 1.0 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 6 7 7 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 7 8 6 700-500 MB RH 74 70 67 69 72 69 67 63 61 62 67 70 71 70 61 64 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 19 21 21 22 22 20 18 16 16 18 19 20 21 21 18 850 MB ENV VOR 77 70 70 75 75 76 67 42 16 -2 -15 -19 -10 -19 -38 -34 -42 200 MB DIV 42 67 63 68 53 3 20 37 35 4 3 65 36 52 13 42 22 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -4 -4 -5 -10 1 18 5 2 0 8 29 31 15 18 1 LAND (KM) 707 611 565 570 416 278 339 123 72 43 79 -33 180 124 0 -75 -64 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.9 10.5 11.1 11.7 13.2 15.0 16.8 18.5 19.7 20.9 22.6 25.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 47.7 50.0 52.3 54.8 57.3 62.7 67.8 72.2 75.8 78.1 79.7 81.3 83.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 22 23 24 25 26 27 25 21 16 11 11 13 11 6 7 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 46 40 42 30 40 21 32 20 33 57 79 58 15 12 36 4 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 22 CX,CY: -21/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 510 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 29. 31. 33. 33. 34. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -6. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -4. -8. -9. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 21. 25. 26. 29. 30. 33. 38. 42. 44. 46. 47. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 9.3 47.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052021 ELSA 07/01/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.70 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.26 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 128.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.74 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.67 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.41 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 27.2% 16.8% 9.4% 7.0% 11.2% 18.0% 31.2% Logistic: 12.2% 31.7% 18.2% 6.2% 4.2% 10.7% 11.2% 14.8% Bayesian: 2.9% 29.4% 8.8% 0.8% 0.4% 7.5% 16.3% 10.8% Consensus: 7.3% 29.4% 14.6% 5.5% 3.9% 9.8% 15.2% 19.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 18.0% 11.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 4.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052021 ELSA 07/01/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052021 ELSA 07/01/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 42 47 51 56 60 61 64 65 68 56 62 64 58 40 31 18HR AGO 35 34 38 43 47 52 56 57 60 61 64 52 58 60 54 36 27 12HR AGO 35 32 31 36 40 45 49 50 53 54 57 45 51 53 47 29 20 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 34 38 39 42 43 46 34 40 42 36 18 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT