* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELSA AL052021 07/01/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 47 51 53 57 59 61 66 68 71 71 76 76 76 74 77 V (KT) LAND 40 43 47 51 53 57 59 60 64 66 45 49 54 55 55 37 30 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 46 48 50 53 54 54 57 63 44 51 55 59 61 41 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 4 11 14 9 14 8 8 7 20 15 17 14 19 11 9 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 7 4 2 9 6 8 -2 1 0 2 7 2 0 -1 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 6 313 313 324 332 308 295 288 271 279 286 267 240 262 284 260 232 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.4 27.8 28.0 29.4 30.2 29.7 29.3 28.5 28.5 28.9 29.1 27.5 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 140 140 147 139 140 161 173 164 156 144 143 147 152 132 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 141 140 140 147 139 140 160 170 152 142 131 125 123 129 117 132 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 -53.9 -53.9 -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 7 9 10 10 9 8 7 8 6 7 5 7 700-500 MB RH 66 66 68 67 67 63 64 62 63 67 73 68 68 63 67 68 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 21 22 22 22 20 18 19 19 20 19 22 21 21 19 20 850 MB ENV VOR 74 76 73 61 65 57 37 2 -19 -31 -20 -8 -5 -51 -28 -54 16 200 MB DIV 53 66 73 29 2 12 44 41 32 15 72 54 66 2 68 17 61 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -4 -5 -5 0 21 9 0 0 9 21 26 16 23 12 12 LAND (KM) 577 575 402 250 311 301 100 86 44 15 -18 120 54 38 27 -71 -170 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 11.5 12.2 12.9 13.5 15.3 17.0 18.7 20.3 21.6 22.9 24.7 27.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 52.6 55.1 57.6 60.1 62.5 67.6 72.1 75.2 78.0 80.0 81.2 82.2 83.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 26 26 25 25 25 25 20 16 14 10 9 11 9 3 6 15 18 HEAT CONTENT 41 33 40 32 33 31 17 35 61 57 60 32 21 24 31 2 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 25 CX,CY: -23/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 13. 17. 21. 23. 26. 28. 30. 30. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. -3. -4. -5. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 13. 17. 19. 21. 26. 28. 31. 31. 36. 36. 36. 34. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 10.7 52.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052021 ELSA 07/01/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.76 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.24 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 182.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.34 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.63 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.34 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.85 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 14.8% 9.4% 8.1% 6.0% 9.9% 11.3% 18.6% Logistic: 3.5% 7.4% 3.7% 1.7% 0.7% 2.2% 3.9% 4.6% Bayesian: 2.5% 8.9% 3.0% 0.2% 0.2% 1.7% 1.8% 0.5% Consensus: 3.6% 10.4% 5.4% 3.3% 2.3% 4.6% 5.6% 7.9% DTOPS: 5.0% 17.0% 10.0% 3.0% 1.0% 4.0% 1.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052021 ELSA 07/01/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052021 ELSA 07/01/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 47 51 53 57 59 60 64 66 45 49 54 55 55 37 30 18HR AGO 40 39 43 47 49 53 55 56 60 62 41 45 50 51 51 33 26 12HR AGO 40 37 36 40 42 46 48 49 53 55 34 38 43 44 44 26 19 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 36 38 39 43 45 24 28 33 34 34 16 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT