* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELSA AL052021 07/02/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 51 52 53 57 57 59 62 64 69 70 78 75 79 76 78 V (KT) LAND 45 48 51 52 53 57 57 59 62 64 55 56 64 61 42 32 29 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 49 51 53 53 53 55 60 67 58 64 68 70 46 33 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 13 17 11 7 16 8 11 10 15 10 14 15 17 9 10 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 1 5 10 5 4 -2 0 2 5 8 1 -3 1 -2 3 SHEAR DIR 322 317 324 338 329 308 289 319 285 293 240 241 211 239 250 231 214 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.8 28.3 27.9 27.9 28.4 29.4 29.7 29.5 28.8 28.2 28.6 28.7 28.3 27.3 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 139 146 140 140 145 161 165 161 149 140 145 145 140 129 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 140 139 146 140 140 145 159 158 150 135 126 127 123 119 114 114 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -53.4 -53.5 -52.9 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -52.8 -53.4 -52.9 -53.4 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 7 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 7 5 7 700-500 MB RH 66 68 68 67 66 66 66 65 64 66 70 69 67 63 66 62 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 23 22 20 22 19 17 17 17 20 19 25 21 24 21 21 850 MB ENV VOR 67 68 54 51 43 43 31 5 -1 -18 -9 -20 -2 -42 -8 -6 79 200 MB DIV 51 66 37 12 -6 18 54 26 -4 27 67 47 80 43 69 50 23 700-850 TADV -6 -12 -5 0 -5 18 17 8 1 -1 2 18 18 21 13 3 18 LAND (KM) 601 449 276 312 393 250 70 89 73 33 28 142 44 19 -60 -51 -164 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 12.1 12.8 13.5 14.2 15.9 17.5 19.1 20.4 21.7 23.4 25.3 27.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.7 57.1 59.5 62.0 64.5 69.2 73.0 76.1 78.8 80.9 82.2 82.9 83.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 23 24 25 25 25 22 18 16 13 11 10 11 10 6 8 14 18 HEAT CONTENT 34 39 36 35 30 41 19 37 80 51 73 17 20 27 13 7 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 22 CX,CY: -20/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 19. 21. 23. 25. 26. 25. 24. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -2. -1. -5. -8. -10. -10. -8. -10. -3. -8. -5. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 7. 8. 12. 12. 14. 17. 19. 24. 25. 33. 30. 34. 31. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 11.4 54.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052021 ELSA 07/02/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.71 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.23 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 216.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.71 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.31 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.57 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 14.6% 9.3% 8.3% 6.1% 9.9% 11.2% 16.3% Logistic: 3.9% 10.8% 5.8% 3.2% 2.1% 3.9% 7.2% 11.9% Bayesian: 1.6% 9.6% 1.7% 0.1% 0.1% 1.1% 4.1% 1.1% Consensus: 3.4% 11.7% 5.6% 3.9% 2.8% 5.0% 7.5% 9.8% DTOPS: 6.0% 14.0% 9.0% 3.0% 2.0% 3.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052021 ELSA 07/02/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052021 ELSA 07/02/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 48 51 52 53 57 57 59 62 64 55 56 64 61 42 32 29 18HR AGO 45 44 47 48 49 53 53 55 58 60 51 52 60 57 38 28 25 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 43 47 47 49 52 54 45 46 54 51 32 22 19 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 40 40 42 45 47 38 39 47 44 25 15 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT