* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELSA AL052021 07/02/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 58 59 60 61 61 63 66 65 68 71 74 77 74 72 72 V (KT) LAND 50 54 58 59 60 61 60 59 44 45 48 51 43 33 34 32 32 V (KT) LGEM 50 54 57 59 59 59 58 58 44 49 54 59 51 36 42 45 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 19 11 11 15 15 13 10 17 16 22 21 24 26 18 13 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 6 7 5 3 -2 2 -1 0 0 0 0 -3 3 0 3 SHEAR DIR 314 318 320 298 305 311 318 307 284 274 274 250 261 257 279 263 226 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 28.2 27.7 27.8 28.1 29.5 30.3 29.6 28.9 28.4 28.4 28.2 27.0 27.1 27.5 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 145 138 139 141 163 173 162 150 143 143 141 125 127 132 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 139 145 138 139 141 163 172 149 136 128 129 124 108 110 115 109 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.4 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -53.6 -53.7 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.1 0.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 9 9 8 8 8 6 7 4 5 3 700-500 MB RH 67 66 65 64 64 65 67 68 69 71 69 68 64 64 67 69 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 21 19 19 17 16 16 17 17 19 21 22 25 23 21 22 850 MB ENV VOR 67 49 40 36 39 32 9 -16 -22 -4 -32 -21 -44 -11 8 30 32 200 MB DIV 54 22 19 2 11 33 36 45 25 76 42 66 39 59 42 82 26 700-850 TADV -13 -8 -6 -6 1 14 8 2 -2 4 12 14 9 23 10 16 -7 LAND (KM) 436 295 356 383 263 49 46 11 -11 56 131 63 -72 -5 64 56 240 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 13.1 13.9 14.8 15.6 17.2 18.7 20.6 22.2 23.5 24.9 27.0 29.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.3 59.6 62.0 64.7 67.4 71.6 74.7 77.9 79.3 80.8 82.4 83.1 82.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 24 24 26 27 24 19 17 14 10 10 11 12 13 11 14 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 39 37 44 29 28 18 35 57 40 51 25 19 10 7 3 6 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 24 CX,CY: -22/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 20. 21. 21. 19. 18. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -7. -8. -6. -4. -3. -0. -3. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 13. 16. 15. 18. 21. 24. 27. 24. 22. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 12.3 57.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052021 ELSA 07/02/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 6.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.58 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.23 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 277.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.65 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.32 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.52 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.87 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.9% 27.4% 19.3% 15.2% 8.1% 13.4% 12.2% 14.0% Logistic: 10.8% 15.4% 11.1% 8.6% 4.7% 8.9% 7.5% 6.5% Bayesian: 7.3% 21.6% 11.2% 0.9% 1.0% 6.1% 6.6% 0.8% Consensus: 10.3% 21.5% 13.8% 8.2% 4.6% 9.5% 8.7% 7.1% DTOPS: 9.0% 11.0% 7.0% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052021 ELSA 07/02/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052021 ELSA 07/02/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 54 58 59 60 61 60 59 44 45 48 51 43 33 34 32 32 18HR AGO 50 49 53 54 55 56 55 54 39 40 43 46 38 28 29 27 27 12HR AGO 50 47 46 47 48 49 48 47 32 33 36 39 31 21 22 20 20 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 41 42 41 40 25 26 29 32 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT