* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELSA AL052021 07/02/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 70 73 75 77 76 76 76 75 74 74 80 77 79 77 82 84 V (KT) LAND 65 70 73 75 77 76 75 73 54 55 54 51 37 40 38 43 45 V (KT) LGEM 65 72 76 77 77 76 76 81 63 66 73 67 43 47 52 62 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 11 11 14 18 9 11 10 18 14 19 12 21 12 5 12 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 6 7 5 4 5 -2 0 3 -1 2 2 -3 -1 8 11 6 SHEAR DIR 314 316 292 303 313 298 318 297 290 256 263 241 259 278 304 190 221 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.9 28.0 28.9 29.5 30.1 29.4 28.7 28.4 29.3 27.6 27.2 27.7 27.7 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 136 140 141 153 162 172 159 147 142 157 132 129 136 135 99 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 138 136 140 141 153 158 163 146 133 126 138 116 116 120 117 87 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -53.3 -53.5 -53.0 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -53.9 -53.5 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.1 0.6 0.5 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 6 6 4 3 0 700-500 MB RH 66 66 64 64 64 67 66 70 70 70 68 67 63 64 67 65 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 20 20 21 19 17 17 17 18 19 24 23 22 20 23 29 850 MB ENV VOR 50 49 41 38 39 28 0 7 -20 -11 -34 -19 -48 0 12 42 54 200 MB DIV 17 24 14 8 13 50 39 18 36 69 54 45 40 67 69 97 64 700-850 TADV -7 -8 -6 -4 10 16 6 -3 0 7 17 15 17 22 7 -16 25 LAND (KM) 277 339 401 288 232 24 52 33 -44 111 79 0 -67 55 82 309 292 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.8 14.5 15.4 16.2 17.9 19.4 20.9 22.4 24.2 26.1 28.1 30.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.8 62.4 65.0 67.3 69.6 73.6 76.6 78.8 80.5 81.7 82.6 82.8 82.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 26 26 25 24 22 18 14 12 11 11 10 11 13 17 18 16 14 HEAT CONTENT 31 32 26 28 33 25 40 69 46 45 24 36 4 4 10 21 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 26 CX,CY: -23/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 9. 8. 6. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -6. -9. -9. -9. -9. -2. -5. -6. -10. -6. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 10. 12. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 9. 15. 12. 14. 12. 17. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 13.0 59.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052021 ELSA 07/02/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 9.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.57 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.20 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.95 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 358.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.57 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.37 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.38 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.70 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 26.1% 36.6% 27.6% 23.2% 17.1% 18.3% 12.2% 13.8% Logistic: 20.0% 23.3% 19.4% 15.5% 8.2% 12.4% 6.4% 6.4% Bayesian: 17.3% 35.1% 30.1% 5.1% 6.1% 10.0% 1.0% 0.2% Consensus: 21.2% 31.7% 25.7% 14.6% 10.5% 13.6% 6.5% 6.8% DTOPS: 22.0% 37.0% 29.0% 14.0% 9.0% 4.0% 1.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052021 ELSA 07/02/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052021 ELSA 07/02/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 4( 6) 6( 12) 5( 16) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 70 73 75 77 76 75 73 54 55 54 51 37 40 38 43 45 18HR AGO 65 64 67 69 71 70 69 67 48 49 48 45 31 34 32 37 39 12HR AGO 65 62 61 63 65 64 63 61 42 43 42 39 25 28 26 31 33 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 57 56 55 53 34 35 34 31 17 20 18 23 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT