* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELSA AL052021 07/02/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 80 82 81 81 78 75 76 75 74 74 74 73 71 71 70 70 V (KT) LAND 75 80 82 81 81 78 73 74 50 54 55 37 34 32 34 33 33 V (KT) LGEM 75 82 86 86 84 81 71 85 58 66 69 44 37 41 41 46 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 18 19 15 11 12 16 16 23 21 23 17 13 17 39 55 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 2 3 3 -1 0 -2 1 1 -1 -2 0 -1 -1 0 3 SHEAR DIR 316 297 309 319 321 322 314 296 281 273 256 268 262 295 283 242 232 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 28.0 28.0 28.2 29.3 30.2 29.8 29.3 28.2 28.9 27.9 27.3 27.1 26.8 24.1 18.1 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 142 141 143 159 172 166 157 140 151 136 129 128 125 101 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 137 142 141 143 157 167 157 145 126 135 120 113 115 112 90 71 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -53.7 -53.8 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.8 -54.5 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.7 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 6 7 3 3 0 0 700-500 MB RH 66 64 65 65 67 70 71 69 69 65 65 63 67 68 73 71 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 18 16 15 12 10 11 12 14 15 16 15 12 11 10 17 850 MB ENV VOR 49 35 34 36 35 20 1 -16 -31 -54 -29 -57 -40 -7 26 62 64 200 MB DIV 34 15 -1 9 40 48 43 26 64 37 90 18 58 49 68 45 36 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 10 20 10 4 0 0 7 17 15 16 13 27 2 28 LAND (KM) 344 383 282 219 84 91 18 23 -22 150 9 -77 -5 -13 161 298 231 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.7 15.5 16.3 17.1 18.6 20.1 21.4 23.0 24.9 27.2 29.5 31.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.4 65.0 67.7 69.8 72.0 75.3 77.6 79.6 81.7 82.6 82.6 82.0 81.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 26 27 24 22 20 16 12 12 11 11 12 12 14 19 20 19 17 HEAT CONTENT 32 25 33 30 18 34 56 65 70 19 34 6 9 4 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 26 CX,CY: -23/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. -1. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -3. -7. -12. -13. -14. -12. -11. -11. -12. -17. -18. -18. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 7. 6. 6. 3. -0. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 13.8 62.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052021 ELSA 07/02/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.90 10.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.52 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.82 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 381.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.54 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.31 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.92 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 31% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 3.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 31.1% 33.9% 26.7% 21.7% 13.2% 13.8% 11.6% 12.4% Logistic: 23.6% 29.1% 22.9% 17.9% 10.8% 17.4% 13.2% 9.0% Bayesian: 26.2% 47.9% 31.6% 8.9% 9.6% 8.6% 1.3% 0.1% Consensus: 27.0% 37.0% 27.1% 16.2% 11.2% 13.3% 8.7% 7.1% DTOPS: 23.0% 9.0% 9.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052021 ELSA 07/02/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052021 ELSA 07/02/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 8( 13) 8( 20) 6( 24) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 3( 4) 1( 5) 3( 8) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 80 82 81 81 78 73 74 50 54 55 37 34 32 34 33 33 18HR AGO 75 74 76 75 75 72 67 68 44 48 49 31 28 26 28 27 27 12HR AGO 75 72 71 70 70 67 62 63 39 43 44 26 23 21 23 22 22 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 65 62 57 58 34 38 39 21 18 16 18 17 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT