* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELSA AL052021 07/03/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 61 59 57 56 57 59 61 63 70 74 80 75 72 73 70 64 V (KT) LAND 65 61 59 57 55 55 49 46 48 55 52 36 30 28 32 29 23 V (KT) LGEM 65 61 57 55 53 51 48 44 48 53 58 36 30 28 35 39 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 21 18 14 16 11 15 13 20 15 21 20 15 16 17 33 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 3 1 2 -3 1 -1 -1 -3 -4 -3 -1 1 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 314 315 313 311 316 316 281 282 273 272 280 282 300 298 239 233 230 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.3 29.0 29.4 30.3 29.6 29.0 28.3 28.2 28.6 27.4 28.1 26.6 23.4 18.1 11.9 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 144 154 160 173 163 152 141 140 146 130 140 123 99 80 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 141 144 153 158 171 153 138 126 124 129 114 124 109 90 75 70 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -54.1 -54.6 -54.6 -54.5 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 6 7 5 5 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 66 65 65 67 69 69 66 64 62 64 64 69 73 75 65 57 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 16 14 13 10 8 10 11 11 13 15 17 14 13 16 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 36 36 30 22 11 -3 -35 -40 -56 -43 -54 -44 -30 33 55 82 92 200 MB DIV 8 19 10 20 35 44 11 58 21 68 14 50 39 89 30 47 13 700-850 TADV -8 2 21 15 4 -1 -3 -1 6 12 16 21 4 26 -9 -8 -43 LAND (KM) 256 181 81 0 101 33 -9 22 136 72 -11 -86 -96 -46 212 169 32 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.6 17.4 18.1 18.8 20.2 21.8 23.4 25.0 27.0 29.4 31.8 34.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 67.9 70.0 72.2 73.7 75.3 77.7 79.9 81.5 82.5 83.2 83.1 82.1 79.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 24 22 19 16 15 13 12 10 10 11 12 14 17 20 24 29 30 HEAT CONTENT 35 24 18 27 35 57 54 70 20 16 23 2 3 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 27 CX,CY: -24/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 8. 6. 3. -1. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -3. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -12. -13. -11. -10. -7. -12. -14. -10. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -8. -9. -8. -6. -4. -2. 5. 9. 15. 10. 7. 8. 5. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 15.8 67.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052021 ELSA 07/03/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.47 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.29 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.95 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 337.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.59 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.27 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.46 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 6.9% 5.9% 4.7% 3.4% 7.9% 7.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 0.8% 1.9% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 3.0% 2.2% 1.7% 1.3% 2.9% 3.2% 0.4% DTOPS: 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052021 ELSA 07/03/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052021 ELSA 07/03/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 61 59 57 55 55 49 46 48 55 52 36 30 28 32 29 23 18HR AGO 65 64 62 60 58 58 52 49 51 58 55 39 33 31 35 32 26 12HR AGO 65 62 61 59 57 57 51 48 50 57 54 38 32 30 34 31 25 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 53 53 47 44 46 53 50 34 28 26 30 27 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT