* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELSA AL052021 07/03/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 58 57 57 60 61 65 71 70 70 68 69 71 73 70 68 V (KT) LAND 60 58 58 57 56 50 45 50 55 54 36 30 28 33 34 31 31 V (KT) LGEM 60 58 56 56 56 50 44 48 51 53 36 30 28 36 42 46 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 15 19 12 18 15 18 14 18 16 13 16 26 39 40 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 -3 -3 1 -1 0 -2 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 0 6 0 5 SHEAR DIR 316 304 299 306 299 287 285 277 273 282 284 292 256 241 239 256 244 SST (C) 27.9 28.5 28.9 29.7 30.2 30.4 29.9 29.0 28.7 28.8 27.6 28.6 25.9 22.5 18.2 14.5 9.7 POT. INT. (KT) 139 146 152 165 173 172 167 152 147 149 133 148 117 92 79 75 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 145 148 161 169 167 152 136 131 129 116 133 105 83 74 72 70 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -54.1 -54.3 -54.8 -54.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.7 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.5 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 8 8 6 7 4 5 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 64 67 67 67 66 64 62 61 64 61 70 73 77 76 66 55 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 11 10 9 11 9 11 13 11 10 8 9 11 17 20 22 850 MB ENV VOR 34 25 6 0 -8 -43 -30 -39 -30 -62 -46 -57 66 114 130 119 90 200 MB DIV 13 17 29 35 23 12 64 36 70 22 47 40 87 48 78 30 82 700-850 TADV 23 19 9 -3 -9 -4 2 9 12 13 14 5 61 2 31 10 2 LAND (KM) 89 12 100 22 54 -24 11 163 54 22 -84 -73 -35 176 168 73 0 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 18.1 18.9 19.6 20.3 22.0 23.3 24.8 27.0 29.0 31.0 33.5 36.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.8 74.3 75.8 77.0 78.3 80.1 81.6 82.7 83.0 83.1 82.4 80.3 76.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 21 16 15 14 13 11 9 10 11 10 13 18 21 19 24 32 35 HEAT CONTENT 14 23 30 43 65 56 74 21 22 28 2 8 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 25 CX,CY: -22/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 800 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 12. 9. 6. 2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -5. -9. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -5. -4. -8. -8. -6. -10. -12. -16. -15. -12. -5. -2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 1. 5. 11. 10. 10. 8. 9. 11. 13. 10. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 17.3 72.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052021 ELSA 07/03/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.57 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.23 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.19 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.98 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 283.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.64 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.17 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.54 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 9.8% 6.9% 6.8% 5.2% 8.9% 8.8% 9.6% Logistic: 0.9% 4.4% 1.9% 1.1% 0.8% 1.8% 2.7% 1.7% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 4.8% 3.0% 2.6% 2.0% 3.6% 3.9% 3.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052021 ELSA 07/03/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052021 ELSA 07/03/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 58 58 57 56 50 45 50 55 54 36 30 28 33 34 31 31 18HR AGO 60 59 59 58 57 51 46 51 56 55 37 31 29 34 35 32 32 12HR AGO 60 57 56 55 54 48 43 48 53 52 34 28 26 31 32 29 29 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 49 43 38 43 48 47 29 23 21 26 27 24 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT