* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELSA AL052021 07/04/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 55 56 57 59 64 66 70 67 69 67 70 68 62 58 53 V (KT) LAND 55 54 55 56 57 59 53 54 58 42 32 28 31 29 23 19 22 V (KT) LGEM 55 53 52 52 53 56 49 52 53 42 31 28 31 34 36 37 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 15 16 13 14 20 11 18 17 19 13 17 25 33 48 38 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -3 -3 1 2 -1 1 -3 0 -3 2 0 0 5 -3 2 2 SHEAR DIR 301 303 298 294 282 290 275 281 268 288 277 248 246 234 244 261 299 SST (C) 28.4 28.7 29.3 29.6 29.8 30.8 29.3 28.9 28.6 28.2 28.3 27.1 23.7 22.3 14.4 10.9 8.1 POT. INT. (KT) 145 149 158 163 166 171 157 150 146 141 143 128 99 93 73 70 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 146 153 156 157 171 143 134 130 124 125 112 89 86 71 68 67 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.5 -53.4 -53.9 -53.7 -54.2 -53.9 -54.6 -54.6 -55.2 -54.9 -55.0 -55.0 -55.8 -55.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 10 10 9 8 8 7 5 6 2 3 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 67 68 65 67 64 63 63 64 65 68 74 79 77 62 47 35 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 9 9 9 9 9 11 9 11 9 9 7 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 20 8 -2 -27 -55 -31 -53 -51 -74 -48 1 30 62 52 51 26 200 MB DIV 15 28 32 36 11 17 39 33 42 42 73 40 73 64 26 16 -19 700-850 TADV 21 7 1 -4 -5 0 1 17 13 9 21 13 31 16 -24 -37 -29 LAND (KM) 70 39 74 84 94 0 71 152 55 -90 -79 -155 46 160 41 120 87 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.4 19.1 19.9 20.7 22.0 23.7 25.6 27.8 30.4 33.0 35.3 37.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.7 76.1 77.5 78.5 79.5 81.2 82.5 83.2 83.4 82.9 81.5 78.9 75.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 15 14 12 11 10 10 10 12 14 15 16 20 26 27 26 25 HEAT CONTENT 23 29 44 65 85 70 45 17 18 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 20 CX,CY: -18/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 763 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 14. 12. 9. 5. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -11. -14. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -4. -3. -8. -8. -12. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 11. 15. 12. 14. 12. 15. 13. 7. 3. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 17.7 74.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052021 ELSA 07/04/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.59 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.32 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 252.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.68 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.24 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.58 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 13.3% 8.6% 8.2% 6.4% 10.1% 10.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 8.4% 4.3% 3.4% 2.7% 4.3% 5.4% 3.2% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 7.5% 4.3% 3.9% 3.0% 4.8% 5.1% 1.1% DTOPS: 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052021 ELSA 07/04/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052021 ELSA 07/04/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 54 55 56 57 59 53 54 58 42 32 28 31 29 23 19 22 18HR AGO 55 54 55 56 57 59 53 54 58 42 32 28 31 29 23 19 22 12HR AGO 55 52 51 52 53 55 49 50 54 38 28 24 27 25 19 15 DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 46 48 42 43 47 31 21 17 20 18 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT