* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELSA AL052021 07/04/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 57 60 61 62 64 64 62 62 59 58 60 64 68 60 53 V (KT) LAND 55 56 57 60 61 45 50 50 34 35 32 28 33 37 40 33 27 V (KT) LGEM 55 54 55 56 57 43 48 50 35 35 37 31 38 44 48 47 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 21 20 18 19 16 20 19 25 20 21 17 21 35 44 51 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -2 0 -2 1 -5 -3 -3 0 -2 -2 -3 0 -4 -7 4 SHEAR DIR 311 308 311 303 292 285 286 284 295 296 312 282 261 254 245 241 252 SST (C) 28.4 28.8 29.6 30.1 30.1 30.4 29.4 29.2 28.9 27.2 27.3 25.4 23.7 18.0 14.3 9.6 9.1 POT. INT. (KT) 143 150 163 172 172 171 158 155 151 128 130 111 100 79 73 69 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 146 158 165 162 164 143 138 133 113 115 99 90 74 70 68 67 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.4 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.9 -55.3 -55.4 -55.1 -54.5 -53.9 -54.1 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 7 7 4 5 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 67 67 63 62 61 59 59 61 63 72 77 81 75 60 53 48 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 9 9 10 9 8 9 8 7 8 7 7 9 13 21 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR 26 14 -6 -27 -52 -51 -72 -61 -81 -68 -68 16 77 98 72 76 47 200 MB DIV 19 34 23 14 7 54 22 55 12 54 34 72 49 60 23 28 21 700-850 TADV 10 0 -4 -6 0 1 6 2 6 11 -5 2 0 33 19 3 -41 LAND (KM) 77 56 33 55 35 -33 94 8 -69 50 10 -11 251 274 108 20 397 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.7 19.5 20.4 21.2 22.7 24.5 26.5 28.5 30.9 33.5 36.0 38.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 75.1 76.3 77.5 78.4 79.3 80.7 81.7 82.0 82.0 81.0 78.9 75.9 71.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 12 11 10 10 10 11 14 17 19 22 26 27 26 24 HEAT CONTENT 24 31 48 67 70 57 38 37 5 11 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 14. 14. 13. 10. 6. 3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. -15. -21. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -9. -12. -13. -11. -5. 3. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 7. 7. 4. 3. 5. 9. 13. 5. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 17.9 75.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052021 ELSA 07/04/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.40 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.32 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.96 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 290.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.64 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.50 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.60 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 22.1% 11.8% 10.2% 7.9% 11.9% 10.6% 8.5% Logistic: 13.4% 27.7% 19.1% 15.3% 13.1% 12.7% 11.6% 3.0% Bayesian: 1.4% 4.9% 1.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.2% 18.3% 10.7% 8.6% 7.1% 8.3% 7.4% 3.8% DTOPS: 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052021 ELSA 07/04/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052021 ELSA 07/04/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 56 57 60 61 45 50 50 34 35 32 28 33 37 40 33 27 18HR AGO 55 54 55 58 59 43 48 48 32 33 30 26 31 35 38 31 25 12HR AGO 55 52 51 54 55 39 44 44 28 29 26 22 27 31 34 27 21 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 46 30 35 35 19 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT