* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELSA AL052021 07/04/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 52 54 55 59 61 65 66 68 66 67 70 68 62 56 49 V (KT) LAND 50 51 52 54 45 46 49 53 41 33 30 32 35 32 26 21 15 V (KT) LGEM 50 49 50 51 44 43 46 48 40 32 30 32 37 41 43 44 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 23 21 18 19 21 15 19 13 17 15 11 13 23 37 46 45 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -2 0 -2 -2 -1 -3 0 -5 -1 0 0 -4 -8 -4 0 1 SHEAR DIR 311 313 298 291 294 268 295 285 287 288 302 264 243 236 228 234 230 SST (C) 28.6 29.4 30.1 30.2 30.5 29.7 29.1 28.8 28.8 27.3 27.3 23.7 23.4 16.1 10.1 7.8 10.1 POT. INT. (KT) 146 160 173 172 172 164 152 148 150 130 131 100 99 77 71 68 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 157 167 165 169 148 134 132 134 115 116 91 91 73 69 67 67 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.4 -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -54.2 -53.9 -54.6 -54.6 -55.0 -54.9 -55.1 -54.9 -55.0 -53.7 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.3 -0.7 -0.4 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 10 10 9 8 8 7 7 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 67 64 62 62 60 61 60 61 63 71 77 74 60 52 49 50 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 6 8 8 7 8 7 9 8 9 8 7 9 9 9 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 20 -5 -33 -53 -62 -51 -70 -54 -78 -55 -46 46 78 70 94 120 119 200 MB DIV 30 11 4 3 12 29 42 32 17 47 50 63 34 12 75 49 35 700-850 TADV 0 0 -3 -1 -1 0 11 2 13 19 3 32 21 -29 -56 -78 -126 LAND (KM) 24 50 56 31 -27 44 118 79 -17 -5 -48 96 221 152 45 315 817 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 19.3 20.4 21.3 22.1 23.6 25.2 26.4 29.1 31.8 34.3 36.9 39.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 76.2 77.4 78.5 79.3 80.2 81.7 82.5 82.9 82.6 81.1 78.6 74.9 70.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 13 12 11 9 7 10 14 16 18 22 26 31 30 26 23 HEAT CONTENT 29 45 69 65 55 66 23 21 24 9 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 17. 16. 14. 10. 7. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -8. -13. -19. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -4. -3. -6. -7. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 11. 15. 16. 18. 16. 17. 20. 18. 12. 6. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 18.3 76.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052021 ELSA 07/04/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.34 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 52.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.35 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 272.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.66 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.39 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.69 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 13.9% 8.7% 8.1% 6.2% 9.9% 9.6% 9.3% Logistic: 5.8% 12.1% 7.4% 5.4% 3.5% 6.5% 6.3% 2.5% Bayesian: 0.9% 2.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 9.6% 5.6% 4.5% 3.3% 5.6% 5.3% 3.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052021 ELSA 07/04/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052021 ELSA 07/04/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 51 52 54 45 46 49 53 41 33 30 32 35 32 26 21 15 18HR AGO 50 49 50 52 43 44 47 51 39 31 28 30 33 30 24 19 DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 48 39 40 43 47 35 27 24 26 29 26 20 15 DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 31 32 35 39 27 19 16 18 21 18 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT