* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELSA AL052021 07/05/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 61 64 66 72 71 72 71 71 71 71 67 61 58 58 58 V (KT) LAND 55 58 48 43 50 56 55 39 35 31 34 34 29 23 20 21 20 V (KT) LGEM 55 58 49 44 50 54 57 41 43 34 39 45 46 45 44 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 19 14 14 19 12 15 11 11 12 13 21 32 39 40 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 4 1 0 1 -2 -1 -4 0 0 3 0 5 8 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 295 292 276 274 267 267 264 277 272 256 262 239 257 233 234 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 30.4 30.7 30.0 29.1 28.9 29.1 27.8 27.7 26.8 25.7 23.9 18.5 12.9 9.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 172 171 169 153 150 154 135 134 125 115 102 79 71 68 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 159 169 171 153 138 134 136 119 118 110 102 91 74 68 67 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -54.3 -54.6 -54.8 -55.0 -54.8 -54.7 -54.9 -54.7 -53.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.5 -0.9 -0.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 4 6 3 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 57 60 58 57 63 60 68 71 76 77 72 67 53 49 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 12 11 13 11 11 10 11 13 15 15 13 15 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -50 -61 -44 -61 -53 -44 -78 -48 -47 -14 30 64 63 48 72 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 24 50 37 19 50 8 41 31 75 53 64 63 70 31 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 5 10 17 11 20 15 32 20 42 18 43 11 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 97 33 -31 0 88 126 15 -72 -1 -22 191 273 198 204 51 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.7 21.6 22.5 23.2 23.9 25.8 27.9 30.0 32.4 34.6 36.8 39.3 42.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.6 80.5 81.3 81.8 82.4 83.0 83.0 82.1 80.5 77.7 73.8 69.2 64.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 10 9 9 10 11 12 15 18 21 23 24 23 23 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 86 71 69 75 36 19 30 4 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 696 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 7. 4. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -11. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -1. 1. -3. -3. -6. -5. -3. -2. -3. -5. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 17. 16. 17. 16. 16. 16. 16. 12. 6. 3. 3. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 20.7 79.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052021 ELSA 07/05/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.47 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 67.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.44 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 349.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.57 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.63 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.79 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.5% 31.4% 19.9% 13.1% 8.2% 14.5% 11.8% 12.3% Logistic: 10.7% 21.1% 14.0% 9.7% 4.8% 10.6% 7.4% 4.0% Bayesian: 2.2% 8.6% 2.9% 0.6% 0.4% 0.9% 0.6% 0.0% Consensus: 9.1% 20.4% 12.3% 7.8% 4.4% 8.7% 6.6% 5.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052021 ELSA 07/05/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052021 ELSA 07/05/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 58 48 43 50 56 55 39 35 31 34 34 29 23 20 21 20 18HR AGO 55 54 44 39 46 52 51 35 31 27 30 30 25 19 16 17 16 12HR AGO 55 52 51 46 53 59 58 42 38 34 37 37 32 26 23 24 23 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 52 58 57 41 37 33 36 36 31 25 22 23 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT