* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELSA AL052021 07/06/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 52 55 58 59 62 66 68 71 65 59 53 38 38 36 36 V (KT) LAND 50 56 57 60 63 56 37 30 28 34 28 28 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 54 54 55 55 56 35 29 28 35 38 36 35 37 41 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 21 20 15 14 16 14 12 12 17 31 40 62 61 46 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 2 4 0 -2 -2 3 3 0 10 -9 -3 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 262 268 277 263 269 266 253 236 246 217 237 251 256 247 262 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.4 28.6 27.4 28.2 26.2 21.4 15.1 11.5 6.4 8.7 8.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 154 152 148 143 146 130 142 120 89 74 72 69 68 67 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 161 140 137 132 126 129 114 126 107 82 71 70 68 67 66 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -54.5 -54.4 -54.7 -54.6 -54.7 -54.6 -54.8 -53.9 -52.0 -50.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.1 -0.9 -1.5 -1.7 0.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 5 6 3 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 58 61 63 63 67 70 75 75 69 63 63 64 60 49 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 14 16 14 14 14 14 16 15 14 15 11 17 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -50 -49 -51 -35 -46 -53 -36 -39 36 102 88 94 80 129 139 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 46 41 57 73 39 20 51 41 78 49 77 71 38 15 25 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 13 18 17 22 11 14 14 42 37 25 89 73 12 -37 N/A N/A LAND (KM) -20 103 148 120 90 -4 -80 -97 -37 105 84 71 230 731 1155 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.0 24.1 25.1 26.1 27.0 29.4 31.7 34.0 37.0 40.0 43.0 46.7 51.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 82.0 82.4 82.8 83.1 83.4 83.2 82.1 79.9 76.4 71.9 66.4 59.6 51.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 11 12 13 18 22 24 28 32 30 23 20 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 77 30 20 18 15 24 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 9. 8. 5. 2. -2. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -5. -13. -24. -31. -32. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 1. 2. 0. -0. -0. -2. 1. -2. -4. -3. -9. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 5. 8. 9. 12. 16. 18. 21. 16. 9. 3. -12. -12. -14. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 23.0 82.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052021 ELSA 07/06/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.50 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.21 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 272.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.66 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.19 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.52 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.38 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 49.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.51 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 11.1% 7.5% 7.1% 5.2% 8.9% 9.2% 9.1% Logistic: 1.6% 3.7% 1.7% 1.3% 0.5% 2.0% 2.3% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 5.0% 3.1% 2.8% 1.9% 3.6% 3.8% 3.6% DTOPS: 5.0% 9.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052021 ELSA 07/06/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052021 ELSA 07/06/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 56 57 60 63 56 37 30 28 34 28 28 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 50 53 56 49 30 23 21 27 21 21 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 49 52 45 26 19 17 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 43 36 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT