* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELSA AL052021 07/06/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 54 56 56 59 60 65 69 69 63 54 45 35 27 25 24 V (KT) LAND 50 51 54 56 56 42 33 29 34 35 26 26 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 51 52 53 53 41 32 29 34 38 39 33 36 38 41 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 19 15 16 18 14 12 15 15 25 37 52 58 59 42 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 1 2 0 -1 -6 -1 -2 1 0 -5 -1 -8 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 274 284 264 271 267 257 258 251 246 224 229 232 245 244 248 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.7 29.0 27.9 28.0 26.9 22.2 18.3 13.1 10.3 9.0 8.2 8.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 152 150 147 152 137 139 127 92 79 72 71 69 68 67 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 141 137 135 131 135 120 122 114 85 75 70 69 68 66 66 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -54.4 -54.8 -54.7 -54.8 -54.4 -54.5 -54.3 -53.4 -51.6 -50.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 -0.3 0.1 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -0.5 -1.5 -1.8 0.3 -0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 8 7 7 4 6 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 58 60 61 59 69 71 77 70 63 64 61 66 56 52 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 13 15 13 13 12 13 14 16 15 14 14 13 13 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -57 -61 -39 -49 -72 -29 -43 -3 69 100 70 88 101 128 79 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 52 66 31 15 54 22 60 68 67 62 83 44 55 42 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 14 15 20 12 21 6 38 30 38 -18 26 38 -30 13 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 73 153 116 62 25 -92 -11 -82 133 123 -5 -95 494 970 1391 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.8 24.8 25.8 26.9 27.9 30.3 32.6 35.2 38.4 41.5 44.8 48.4 52.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 82.3 82.6 82.9 83.0 83.1 82.4 80.8 77.9 73.5 68.5 62.8 56.0 48.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 11 13 15 21 24 26 28 31 28 23 20 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 44 22 20 21 27 2 14 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. -1. -5. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -5. -11. -20. -30. -37. -39. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 0. 1. -2. -1. 0. 2. -0. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 6. 9. 10. 15. 19. 19. 13. 4. -5. -15. -23. -25. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 23.8 82.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052021 ELSA 07/06/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.42 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 306.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.62 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.23 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.48 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.32 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 44.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.56 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 9.7% 6.7% 6.6% 4.6% 8.5% 9.1% 8.5% Logistic: 1.3% 3.3% 1.4% 0.8% 0.3% 2.2% 2.8% 1.7% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 4.4% 2.7% 2.5% 1.6% 3.5% 4.0% 3.4% DTOPS: 2.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052021 ELSA 07/06/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052021 ELSA 07/06/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 51 54 56 56 42 33 29 34 35 26 26 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 52 54 54 40 31 27 32 33 24 24 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 48 48 34 25 21 26 27 18 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 26 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT