* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELSA AL052021 07/06/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 53 54 55 57 59 64 69 66 59 48 40 26 21 20 19 V (KT) LAND 50 51 53 54 55 36 30 28 36 33 26 25 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 51 51 52 52 35 30 28 35 39 36 34 35 36 39 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 16 16 18 16 15 16 16 22 38 47 59 56 53 38 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 3 -1 -2 0 -4 -1 -2 -2 -1 -1 -4 -6 -5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 279 262 275 272 276 266 257 244 239 222 219 235 245 248 221 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.6 29.0 28.9 27.3 28.1 25.9 21.6 14.2 10.6 5.5 6.9 6.8 6.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 146 152 151 129 141 117 90 74 71 69 67 62 58 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 137 137 131 135 134 114 125 105 83 71 70 68 65 60 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -54.2 -54.6 -54.7 -55.0 -54.8 -55.0 -54.3 -54.3 -52.0 -50.1 -49.1 -47.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.5 -0.1 -0.5 0.0 -0.8 -1.0 -1.5 -1.1 -0.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 7 6 6 3 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 58 59 58 64 71 77 76 71 64 65 66 58 54 55 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 13 12 11 11 10 12 14 14 14 13 13 10 10 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -63 -35 -49 -74 -59 -37 -22 27 85 78 92 116 133 145 147 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 49 73 45 14 30 36 38 83 63 81 64 50 37 49 47 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 15 19 12 11 20 18 42 32 0 -73 -13 37 25 13 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 147 126 84 19 18 -39 -83 -31 111 27 -11 256 765 1033 1064 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.4 25.5 26.6 27.8 28.9 31.4 33.9 36.7 39.9 43.6 47.8 52.2 56.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 82.6 82.9 83.1 83.0 82.9 81.8 79.8 76.3 72.0 66.3 59.1 51.9 45.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 12 12 14 17 22 26 30 32 31 21 7 1 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 19 18 29 27 9 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 9 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -2. -7. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -4. -9. -17. -26. -36. -42. -44. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 1. 0. -0. -3. -3. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 14. 19. 16. 9. -2. -10. -24. -29. -30. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 24.4 82.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052021 ELSA 07/06/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.47 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.15 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 300.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.63 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.08 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.48 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 38.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.62 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 8.2% 7.2% 4.8% 2.8% 8.1% 8.4% 6.9% Logistic: 1.0% 3.5% 1.4% 0.9% 0.4% 3.1% 3.6% 1.3% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 3.9% 2.9% 1.9% 1.1% 3.7% 4.0% 2.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052021 ELSA 07/06/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052021 ELSA 07/06/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 51 53 54 55 36 30 28 36 33 26 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 51 52 53 34 28 26 34 31 24 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 47 48 29 23 21 29 26 19 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 41 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT