* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELSA AL052021 07/06/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 61 60 61 58 60 62 67 62 53 51 47 44 42 42 42 V (KT) LAND 60 62 61 60 48 34 29 32 37 30 26 29 29 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 60 62 63 63 51 35 29 33 38 35 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 15 18 19 18 18 14 15 24 42 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 1 -2 -3 -7 0 -6 -3 -2 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 270 289 285 288 283 289 270 260 222 220 222 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.4 27.9 27.2 23.6 19.4 14.5 9.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 152 149 148 143 137 130 99 82 75 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 133 136 133 132 126 122 116 89 77 73 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -54.1 -54.4 -54.6 -54.8 -54.9 -55.3 -54.6 -54.8 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.1 -0.5 -0.4 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 0.1 -0.4 -0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 7 7 4 6 1 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 59 58 64 68 73 77 70 67 61 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 13 11 13 10 11 11 15 15 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -48 -68 -62 -42 -55 -7 52 65 67 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 64 58 26 13 57 27 60 34 55 40 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 22 27 19 18 21 14 36 0 16 -29 -65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 151 108 76 48 -60 -51 -127 60 74 -9 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.3 26.4 27.5 28.8 30.0 32.4 35.1 38.0 40.9 45.2 50.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 83.0 83.3 83.5 83.2 82.9 81.5 78.7 74.6 70.7 64.4 56.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 13 13 16 20 21 26 35 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 19 17 26 13 6 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 9 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 34.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -3. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -5. -12. -14. -16. -19. -21. -22. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -2. -5. -6. -8. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. -0. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 1. -0. 1. -2. 1. 2. 7. 2. -7. -9. -13. -16. -18. -18. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 25.3 83.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052021 ELSA 07/06/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.45 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 34.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.07 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.98 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 304.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.62 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.12 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.37 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.34 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.76 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 9.1% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 7.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 2.7% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 1.2% 1.7% 0.5% Bayesian: 2.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 4.0% 2.5% 0.1% 0.1% 3.0% 3.2% 0.2% DTOPS: 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052021 ELSA 07/06/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052021 ELSA 07/06/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 62 61 60 48 34 29 32 37 30 26 29 29 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 60 59 58 57 45 31 26 29 34 27 23 26 26 27 27 27 27 12HR AGO 60 57 56 55 43 29 24 27 32 25 21 24 24 25 25 25 25 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 38 24 19 22 27 20 16 19 19 20 20 20 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT