* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELSA AL052021 07/07/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 55 55 54 57 60 63 59 52 41 38 35 31 29 28 27 V (KT) LAND 55 54 44 37 32 29 28 34 27 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 53 44 37 32 28 28 35 34 35 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 20 22 20 14 13 14 28 45 58 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -4 -4 0 -3 1 0 0 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 303 298 292 294 290 261 247 218 214 217 222 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.3 27.7 27.9 27.6 25.6 19.7 13.1 11.2 7.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 144 142 134 137 134 114 83 73 72 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 132 127 125 118 120 119 102 78 71 70 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.6 -54.7 -54.6 -54.6 -54.7 -55.0 -54.3 -54.0 -52.9 -50.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.6 -0.5 -0.7 -0.6 -0.1 -0.4 0.0 0.0 -0.4 -0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 7 6 4 6 2 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 66 72 74 74 75 68 60 56 54 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 13 13 14 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -63 -55 -46 -55 -67 -13 41 88 59 101 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 21 28 34 27 45 37 68 38 49 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 13 21 28 27 34 0 14 -20 -27 -48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 64 45 -39 -115 -109 -155 -20 60 -14 -2 327 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.8 29.0 30.1 31.4 32.6 35.1 37.7 40.9 44.7 48.8 53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 83.5 83.4 83.3 82.7 82.1 79.4 75.9 71.2 65.3 58.5 51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 13 15 18 22 27 30 31 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 24 18 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 12 CX,CY: -1/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 729 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -0. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -5. -12. -19. -22. -26. -30. -33. -35. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -0. -0. -0. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. -0. -1. 2. 5. 8. 4. -3. -14. -17. -20. -24. -26. -27. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 27.8 83.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052021 ELSA 07/07/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.38 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 221.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.71 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.35 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 11.1% 7.7% 7.5% 5.5% 9.3% 8.6% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 4.1% 1.6% 0.7% 0.4% 2.3% 1.9% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 5.1% 3.1% 2.7% 2.0% 3.8% 3.5% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052021 ELSA 07/07/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052021 ELSA 07/07/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 54 44 37 32 29 28 34 27 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 44 37 32 29 28 34 27 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 44 39 36 35 41 34 31 27 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 40 37 36 42 35 32 28 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT