* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELSA AL052021 07/07/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 53 52 53 57 63 62 54 44 38 34 29 24 21 19 18 V (KT) LAND 55 44 36 32 30 28 34 33 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 44 36 32 30 28 33 36 36 34 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 20 19 14 15 13 20 36 50 59 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -3 0 3 0 0 0 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 299 287 287 285 263 264 222 215 212 229 228 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.3 27.8 28.1 28.3 27.7 21.9 14.1 13.1 7.5 7.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 135 140 144 136 91 74 73 70 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 125 124 118 123 127 121 84 71 71 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.6 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -54.6 -54.5 -53.8 -53.4 -50.9 -48.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 0.0 -0.2 0.5 -0.3 -0.9 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 4 3 5 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 72 73 74 75 72 66 60 57 57 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 11 10 10 11 14 15 14 12 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -56 -40 -52 -60 -37 31 96 78 89 114 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 27 44 35 49 84 63 63 31 26 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 13 21 24 24 31 56 34 -4 -47 -35 -40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 40 -66 -129 -101 -164 -143 64 74 117 136 695 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.2 30.4 31.5 32.8 34.1 36.8 39.8 43.7 47.9 52.1 56.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 83.6 83.2 82.8 81.9 81.0 77.6 73.4 68.1 61.0 53.7 46.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 15 17 21 25 30 32 31 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 3 2 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 12 CX,CY: -1/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 767 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -2. -7. -14. -21. -25. -29. -34. -38. -40. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 10. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 2. 0. -3. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -3. -2. 2. 8. 7. -1. -11. -17. -21. -26. -31. -34. -36. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 29.2 83.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052021 ELSA 07/07/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.46 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 188.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.74 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.36 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.34 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 8.7% 6.5% 6.5% 4.8% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 3.7% 1.3% 0.6% 0.4% 2.1% 0.9% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 4.1% 2.6% 2.4% 1.7% 3.6% 0.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052021 ELSA 07/07/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052021 ELSA 07/07/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 44 36 32 30 28 34 33 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 46 42 40 38 44 43 36 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 47 45 43 49 48 41 34 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 43 41 47 46 39 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT