* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELSA AL052021 07/07/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 44 47 50 52 52 42 29 29 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 37 33 30 29 28 33 30 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 37 32 30 28 28 29 30 32 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 19 12 13 15 13 30 50 61 41 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -2 1 2 -1 3 0 1 9 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 289 285 288 266 255 260 219 218 219 224 218 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 27.7 28.1 28.2 27.4 26.1 16.7 16.2 10.1 7.9 1.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 134 140 142 132 119 77 77 71 69 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 124 118 123 126 118 107 73 74 70 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.6 -54.1 -54.9 -53.7 -53.2 -51.0 -47.6 -45.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 0.1 -0.5 0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6 2.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 4 3 6 2 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 72 72 75 76 69 59 55 56 57 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 10 11 12 11 12 14 12 9 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -52 -60 -44 -6 68 93 72 116 140 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 38 27 47 64 57 45 17 20 32 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 25 28 16 26 49 26 34 -16 -47 -34 -28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -46 -130 -119 -164 -209 -45 4 -6 13 460 1049 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.3 31.6 32.8 34.2 35.6 38.7 42.3 46.5 51.1 55.6 60.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 83.5 82.8 82.1 80.8 79.5 75.6 70.9 64.8 57.0 50.1 44.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 15 18 20 23 28 32 32 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 2 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 12 CX,CY: 0/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 745 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -2. -10. -17. -22. -26. -32. -39. -43. -45. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -1. -4. -9. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. 2. 5. 7. 7. -3. -16. -16. -20. -25. -31. -34. -36. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 30.3 83.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052021 ELSA 07/07/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.49 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.02 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 135.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.41 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.32 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 9.4% 6.8% 6.4% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 4.8% 1.6% 0.6% 0.4% 2.3% 0.8% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 4.7% 2.8% 2.3% 1.7% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052021 ELSA 07/07/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052021 ELSA 07/07/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 37 33 30 29 28 33 30 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 40 37 36 35 40 37 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 38 37 36 41 38 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 33 38 35 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT