* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELSA AL052021 07/08/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 39 41 42 48 50 46 36 33 29 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 34 31 29 28 35 37 31 25 23 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 34 31 29 28 33 35 34 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 14 12 13 12 17 36 51 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 3 3 3 1 0 5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 278 282 258 251 258 223 225 223 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 28.1 28.3 27.2 27.6 21.2 13.9 12.9 7.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 140 144 130 136 88 73 73 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 118 123 128 117 122 81 71 71 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.5 -54.6 -54.3 -53.1 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.7 -0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 4 7 6 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 71 73 75 73 66 58 56 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 11 13 13 12 15 15 13 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -54 -67 -45 -11 33 90 64 75 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 21 39 59 75 55 68 30 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 23 24 10 36 55 40 3 1 -47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -120 -80 -130 -173 -118 62 94 105 187 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.5 32.7 33.9 35.5 37.1 40.2 43.7 48.0 51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 82.7 81.7 80.7 79.0 77.3 72.8 67.5 60.7 52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 18 21 23 25 29 32 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 3 3 1 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 13 CX,CY: 3/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 767 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. -1. -10. -14. -19. -24. -29. -35. -39. -41. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -1. 1. 2. 8. 10. 6. -4. -7. -11. -15. -19. -23. -26. -28. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 31.5 82.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052021 ELSA 07/08/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.57 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 140.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.45 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 8.5% 6.4% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 3.5% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 1.3% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 4.0% 2.5% 2.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052021 ELSA 07/08/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052021 ELSA 07/08/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 34 31 29 28 35 37 31 25 23 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 36 34 33 40 42 36 30 28 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 34 33 40 42 36 30 28 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 36 38 32 26 24 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT