* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELSA AL052021 07/09/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 46 46 39 28 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 51 50 50 46 38 28 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 48 47 46 42 36 31 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 19 27 34 51 56 52 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 3 -1 -2 0 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 244 210 214 208 216 225 240 236 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 22.0 18.3 12.7 15.4 8.6 8.0 7.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 93 81 73 77 72 70 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 104 86 76 71 74 71 69 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.4 -54.3 -54.2 -53.5 -51.3 -48.8 -47.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.2 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 3 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 62 55 52 50 49 54 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 19 20 20 16 14 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 86 79 59 53 96 132 113 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 47 52 71 65 -7 9 19 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 20 16 16 -17 -32 -89 -56 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -31 48 35 37 16 99 857 1361 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.4 40.4 42.3 44.5 46.7 51.8 56.5 60.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 75.5 72.7 69.9 66.8 63.7 54.1 43.8 37.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 26 29 30 31 36 39 31 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 22 CX,CY: 17/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -16. -18. -20. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -4. -12. -20. -26. -33. -40. -48. -58. -64. -67. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 13. 13. 12. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -5. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. 1. -6. -17. -23. -29. -33. -39. -45. -53. -63. -67. -67. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 38.4 75.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052021 ELSA 07/09/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.07 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 239.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.69 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.79 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.08 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.69 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 4.4% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052021 ELSA 07/09/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052021 ELSA 07/09/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 51 50 50 46 38 28 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 43 43 39 31 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 37 29 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 31 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT