* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELSA AL052021 07/09/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 45 42 39 29 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 49 44 42 38 28 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 47 37 40 33 31 28 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 39 50 53 59 51 41 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 -2 3 -3 4 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 212 210 217 216 222 232 236 242 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 18.1 12.8 15.7 12.3 10.0 8.7 8.7 9.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 80 73 77 73 72 71 70 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 76 71 73 71 71 70 68 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.3 -52.9 -51.8 -50.0 -48.9 -48.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.7 -0.9 -0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 51 50 49 47 50 50 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 23 20 18 15 18 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 87 63 51 64 97 84 108 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 88 57 -3 7 19 14 35 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 26 -9 -8 -48 -68 -97 -1 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -28 29 6 105 4 644 1340 1362 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 42.0 44.3 46.5 48.5 50.5 54.4 58.8 61.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 71.0 67.8 64.6 60.4 56.2 46.3 36.8 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 29 32 33 34 35 35 29 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 25 CX,CY: 16/ 19 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. -17. -20. -23. -24. -26. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 1. -7. -14. -24. -30. -38. -47. -55. -66. -74. -77. -79. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. -1. -3. -6. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. -3. -6. -16. -23. -31. -38. -44. -51. -59. -67. -78. -82. -83. -85. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 42.0 71.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052021 ELSA 07/09/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 46.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 220.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.71 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.69 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.77 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052021 ELSA 07/09/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052021 ELSA 07/09/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 49 44 42 38 28 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 39 37 33 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 39 35 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 31 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT