* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX EP062021 07/14/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 40 49 56 63 64 61 58 56 53 53 52 50 47 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 40 49 56 63 64 61 58 56 53 53 52 50 47 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 35 39 43 45 46 45 42 39 36 33 31 28 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 4 5 4 2 1 2 8 5 5 10 9 7 7 10 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -1 -1 -1 0 0 -2 -5 1 4 -1 0 0 -4 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 85 72 52 63 46 37 340 95 178 200 187 163 169 150 169 251 284 SST (C) 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.8 28.2 27.4 27.1 26.4 26.5 26.0 26.2 26.7 27.2 27.1 26.5 25.6 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 154 153 147 138 134 126 128 123 125 131 136 135 129 121 126 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 67 67 66 67 67 67 63 57 51 48 47 45 42 43 44 43 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 7 7 8 10 10 11 12 12 11 10 9 9 8 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -22 -25 -27 -24 -24 -18 -17 -3 1 5 0 3 1 8 -3 2 200 MB DIV 23 35 43 33 35 29 20 -29 -44 -24 -31 -29 -29 -32 -55 -51 -27 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 -1 1 0 2 0 -2 0 1 -1 1 2 3 0 LAND (KM) 982 1024 1042 1066 1103 1220 1346 1438 1575 1703 1831 1990 2214 2344 2169 1920 1615 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 11 11 9 7 7 7 8 9 11 11 9 10 14 16 HEAT CONTENT 17 19 32 21 10 5 3 1 2 0 0 4 10 5 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 452 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 24. 25. 26. 26. 26. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 19. 26. 33. 34. 31. 28. 26. 23. 23. 22. 20. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.9 112.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062021 SIX 07/14/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.35 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.81 5.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 117.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 -4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.16 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.72 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.4% 22.5% 19.8% 18.7% 0.0% 18.3% 16.6% 12.9% Logistic: 11.5% 43.9% 29.4% 19.8% 8.9% 24.3% 8.6% 5.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 4.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 7.0% 23.5% 16.6% 12.9% 3.0% 14.3% 8.5% 6.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 10.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 7.0% 9.0% 17.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062021 SIX 07/14/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##