* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FELICIA EP062021 07/14/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 66 70 74 79 82 80 77 73 72 68 64 61 60 57 54 V (KT) LAND 55 61 66 70 74 79 82 80 77 73 72 68 64 61 60 57 54 V (KT) LGEM 55 63 69 74 78 81 81 79 75 69 64 61 57 53 49 43 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 5 4 3 4 7 7 1 5 8 12 13 10 5 8 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 0 0 -5 -3 -4 1 -1 -2 -3 -2 -3 -2 1 2 SHEAR DIR 53 61 38 41 48 61 97 145 330 117 134 138 138 161 230 226 253 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.3 27.9 27.6 27.3 26.7 26.6 26.1 26.3 26.9 26.9 27.0 26.7 26.0 26.2 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 147 143 139 136 130 129 124 126 133 133 134 130 123 125 127 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 66 68 67 68 67 64 58 52 49 49 48 45 45 48 49 47 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 12 13 13 14 14 15 14 14 14 13 12 13 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -25 -32 -33 -33 -16 -17 0 3 7 0 -6 0 0 -1 -2 7 200 MB DIV 40 45 18 24 40 9 -32 -40 -13 8 -13 -34 -68 -59 -40 -23 9 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -3 -2 0 1 1 -1 -6 -1 0 0 1 0 0 -2 0 LAND (KM) 1051 1079 1120 1172 1227 1328 1450 1583 1709 1857 2008 2182 2351 2158 2008 1840 1658 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.0 15.3 15.5 15.6 15.5 15.2 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 14.9 14.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.8 115.9 117.0 117.9 118.8 120.3 121.7 123.3 124.9 126.7 128.7 130.9 133.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 8 7 7 8 8 9 10 11 11 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 31 23 11 7 6 4 2 2 0 0 8 6 4 1 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. 3. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 15. 19. 24. 27. 25. 22. 18. 17. 13. 9. 6. 5. 2. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.6 114.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062021 FELICIA 07/14/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.47 6.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 9.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.77 9.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 8.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 4.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 212.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.67 -6.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.82 1.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 3.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 33% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 26.7% 44.2% 41.6% 33.7% 22.4% 32.6% 16.2% 9.9% Logistic: 14.9% 29.0% 23.7% 16.3% 7.4% 9.6% 3.9% 2.2% Bayesian: 14.2% 5.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 18.6% 26.3% 22.0% 16.7% 9.9% 14.2% 6.8% 4.0% DTOPS: 21.0% 42.0% 31.0% 17.0% 11.0% 32.0% 8.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062021 FELICIA 07/14/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##