* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FELICIA EP062021 07/15/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 70 74 77 79 78 80 78 76 73 72 71 70 68 65 63 59 V (KT) LAND 65 70 74 77 79 78 80 78 76 73 72 71 70 68 65 63 59 V (KT) LGEM 65 69 73 75 76 76 76 74 70 67 66 65 64 60 55 52 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 4 4 5 7 1 4 6 7 7 5 3 1 3 2 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 -4 -2 -2 -2 -2 -6 -5 -3 0 1 0 1 6 5 SHEAR DIR 57 58 84 83 50 53 101 307 19 87 111 55 58 36 16 317 265 SST (C) 28.3 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.3 26.7 26.9 26.2 26.6 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.2 25.6 26.1 26.3 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 148 143 140 138 136 130 132 125 129 136 135 134 126 119 124 126 124 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.1 -52.6 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 67 67 67 65 63 58 52 49 50 53 53 54 52 52 49 46 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 14 14 13 15 16 16 16 16 16 15 14 12 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -21 -15 -16 -9 -8 7 4 7 -1 0 4 -5 -8 1 8 9 200 MB DIV 30 30 42 33 7 -13 -49 -9 8 9 8 -40 -18 -10 -28 -17 -8 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 1 -1 1 -1 -6 -4 -1 0 0 2 2 0 1 1 LAND (KM) 1143 1199 1257 1310 1366 1479 1630 1778 1920 2055 2206 2351 2118 1923 1774 1610 1425 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.3 15.4 15.4 15.3 15.1 14.7 14.6 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.8 15.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.1 118.1 119.0 119.8 120.6 122.0 123.6 125.4 127.2 129.0 131.0 133.2 135.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 8 7 7 8 9 9 9 10 11 10 10 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 11 7 5 4 4 2 3 0 2 11 8 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 493 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. -0. -0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 14. 13. 15. 13. 11. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. -0. -2. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 15.1 117.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062021 FELICIA 07/15/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.33 3.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.32 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.78 7.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 6.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 5.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 292.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.58 -4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.72 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 28.5% 34.7% 29.0% 24.1% 16.3% 18.2% 13.0% 0.0% Logistic: 14.7% 27.7% 18.9% 14.3% 8.9% 3.5% 1.2% 0.6% Bayesian: 1.5% 3.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 14.9% 22.1% 16.2% 12.9% 8.5% 7.3% 4.7% 0.2% DTOPS: 37.0% 35.0% 28.0% 21.0% 16.0% 6.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062021 FELICIA 07/15/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##