* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FELICIA EP062021 07/15/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 86 89 90 90 87 83 78 76 71 69 65 65 62 60 57 54 V (KT) LAND 80 86 89 90 90 87 83 78 76 71 69 65 65 62 60 57 54 V (KT) LGEM 80 86 89 89 88 84 81 76 73 71 68 65 61 57 52 48 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 5 6 9 9 2 6 7 14 5 7 11 7 4 9 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -4 -2 -3 -6 -3 -2 -3 -5 2 1 -2 -1 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 44 29 23 28 37 100 115 104 71 115 118 69 47 45 302 296 305 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.4 26.8 26.7 27.5 27.4 27.4 26.7 25.8 25.8 26.1 26.2 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 138 138 137 137 131 130 139 138 138 131 121 122 125 125 125 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 65 65 63 61 61 56 49 48 49 47 47 48 50 46 44 41 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 14 15 15 15 15 15 14 14 13 14 13 12 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -15 -23 -15 -12 -1 9 15 8 -5 10 3 -3 0 5 1 4 200 MB DIV 27 32 23 -6 -23 -53 -40 -20 -4 -14 -37 -21 -27 -18 -25 -14 -8 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -2 0 1 -2 -4 -3 -1 -1 -1 0 0 1 1 -1 LAND (KM) 1214 1277 1327 1392 1459 1585 1722 1882 2039 2176 2331 2248 2056 1841 1634 1440 1283 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.3 15.3 15.2 15.0 14.7 14.5 14.3 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.2 119.1 120.0 120.8 121.6 123.0 124.6 126.4 128.2 130.2 132.3 134.3 136.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 6 5 5 5 6 11 2 2 15 11 13 2 0 0 0 0 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 475 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -9. -12. -14. -15. -17. -18. -20. -22. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 9. 10. 10. 7. 3. -2. -4. -9. -11. -14. -15. -18. -20. -23. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 15.2 118.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062021 FELICIA 07/15/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.16 1.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 5.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.71 5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 399.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.45 -2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.97 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.59 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 29.5% 23.5% 21.9% 21.3% 13.6% 15.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 19.3% 18.7% 15.8% 14.2% 9.7% 1.6% 0.4% 0.4% Bayesian: 1.5% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 16.8% 14.6% 12.6% 11.9% 7.8% 5.7% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 41.0% 22.0% 18.0% 15.0% 11.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062021 FELICIA 07/15/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##