* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FELICIA EP062021 07/15/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 90 92 92 91 88 84 79 77 73 71 67 65 64 61 59 57 V (KT) LAND 85 90 92 92 91 88 84 79 77 73 71 67 65 64 61 59 57 V (KT) LGEM 85 90 93 92 90 86 82 78 76 73 69 65 62 59 56 54 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 8 8 6 6 6 6 8 8 10 8 8 6 9 7 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -5 -3 -3 -5 -4 -4 -2 0 -2 -3 -5 -5 -5 -2 -6 SHEAR DIR 56 51 42 46 60 85 40 37 72 112 58 66 28 360 332 308 304 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.3 26.5 27.1 27.5 27.4 27.2 26.6 25.4 25.9 26.3 26.4 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 138 137 137 136 128 134 139 138 135 130 117 123 126 127 125 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 64 63 59 59 57 50 45 48 47 47 48 47 46 44 45 40 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 15 14 15 15 16 15 16 16 16 15 15 16 14 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -23 -15 -13 -7 13 12 14 6 7 9 17 12 11 6 17 23 200 MB DIV 28 12 -9 -28 -23 -55 -30 -11 14 -29 -38 -19 -12 -22 5 -2 -12 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 0 0 -2 -5 -4 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 1275 1330 1388 1456 1526 1661 1818 1948 2109 2260 2385 2179 1944 1730 1556 1400 1253 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.2 15.2 15.0 14.8 14.6 14.4 14.3 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.0 119.9 120.8 121.6 122.3 123.9 125.7 127.2 129.4 131.4 133.0 135.0 137.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 8 8 9 10 9 9 11 11 10 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 5 6 9 6 1 6 12 13 6 1 0 0 1 2 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 488 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -8. -12. -15. -18. -20. -22. -23. -25. -27. -29. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 4. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 7. 7. 6. 3. -1. -6. -8. -12. -14. -18. -20. -21. -24. -26. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 15.2 119.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062021 FELICIA 07/15/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.11 0.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 5.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.15 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.68 4.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 461.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.38 -2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.66 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.2% 20.0% 19.7% 19.1% 12.5% 13.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.8% 11.8% 9.2% 8.1% 8.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.1% 10.8% 9.6% 9.1% 7.0% 4.9% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 22.0% 8.0% 5.0% 5.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062021 FELICIA 07/15/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##