* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FELICIA EP062021 07/16/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 98 98 96 96 92 85 83 78 72 70 67 65 61 58 55 52 V (KT) LAND 95 98 98 96 96 92 85 83 78 72 70 67 65 61 58 55 52 V (KT) LGEM 95 98 97 95 93 88 82 78 75 69 65 62 59 56 50 43 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 6 4 6 1 5 6 12 5 6 5 0 13 15 18 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -4 -4 -8 -2 -2 -6 -4 0 0 -4 0 -5 0 2 2 SHEAR DIR 54 46 51 75 89 34 63 88 132 111 68 54 208 291 298 286 284 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.2 26.9 26.4 27.0 27.3 27.3 26.8 26.1 25.4 25.7 26.0 26.2 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 137 136 135 132 127 134 137 136 131 124 117 121 124 125 123 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 63 61 60 56 53 48 47 47 46 44 47 48 48 46 45 44 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 13 14 14 13 15 15 14 15 14 14 14 14 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -8 -7 -1 2 3 8 3 -5 5 9 11 10 14 0 7 -1 200 MB DIV 24 9 -5 1 -6 -10 -8 1 1 -58 -39 -32 -35 -25 -15 5 8 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 0 1 -1 0 0 1 -1 0 1 2 LAND (KM) 1314 1364 1415 1480 1547 1691 1828 1969 2121 2268 2313 2118 1927 1702 1473 1299 1169 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.3 15.2 15.1 14.9 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.8 120.5 121.2 122.0 122.7 124.4 126.1 127.8 129.9 131.8 133.6 135.5 137.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 10 10 12 11 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 4 5 5 7 10 2 1 8 9 11 2 0 0 0 0 3 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 462 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -13. -19. -24. -27. -30. -33. -35. -37. -39. -41. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -0. -0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 1. 1. 0. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 1. 1. -3. -10. -12. -17. -23. -25. -28. -30. -34. -37. -40. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 15.3 119.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062021 FELICIA 07/16/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.01 0.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.76 4.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 541.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.29 -1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.63 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.6% 21.5% 16.7% 15.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.5% 8.4% 7.6% 6.1% 9.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.7% 10.0% 8.1% 7.1% 3.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 12.0% 2.0% 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062021 FELICIA 07/16/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##