* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FELICIA EP062021 07/16/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 103 103 101 98 91 84 79 72 67 63 58 57 55 52 50 46 V (KT) LAND 100 103 103 101 98 91 84 79 72 67 63 58 57 55 52 50 46 V (KT) LGEM 100 102 100 97 94 86 78 72 68 63 58 53 50 47 43 38 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 4 5 3 2 3 7 10 3 3 2 5 12 11 24 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -3 -7 -3 0 -1 -4 -3 3 2 0 -1 -2 0 -2 -9 SHEAR DIR 64 56 57 118 160 319 75 125 146 142 126 352 322 324 303 309 317 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.3 26.4 26.6 27.0 27.0 27.2 26.5 25.8 25.6 26.0 26.1 26.3 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 135 136 136 127 129 134 133 135 128 121 119 123 124 126 125 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 62 59 57 54 51 47 48 48 48 48 48 46 46 46 46 43 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 14 14 14 16 15 15 15 15 14 12 12 12 11 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -5 -1 4 11 9 6 -1 -3 -9 6 0 1 -2 -1 0 -1 200 MB DIV 14 12 -1 -6 -10 -15 4 -20 -21 -47 -40 -27 -19 -6 -23 1 -29 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 0 0 -4 -1 0 1 0 2 1 -2 0 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1374 1427 1481 1539 1599 1747 1888 2008 2151 2302 2248 2070 1873 1714 1566 1417 1244 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.1 15.0 14.9 14.8 14.7 14.8 15.0 15.0 14.9 14.8 14.6 14.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 120.6 121.3 121.9 122.6 123.3 125.1 126.9 128.7 130.6 132.4 134.2 136.0 138.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 6 11 9 1 2 9 7 8 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 495 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -4. -9. -16. -22. -28. -32. -36. -39. -41. -43. -45. -47. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 1. -2. -9. -16. -21. -28. -33. -37. -42. -43. -45. -48. -50. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 15.2 120.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062021 FELICIA 07/16/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.76 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 606.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.22 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.04 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.61 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.3% 17.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.0% 7.9% 8.1% 6.4% 10.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.4% 8.5% 2.7% 2.1% 3.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 12.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062021 FELICIA 07/16/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##