* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FELICIA EP062021 07/16/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 111 111 108 104 96 89 82 74 68 64 60 58 58 58 55 53 V (KT) LAND 110 111 111 108 104 96 89 82 74 68 64 60 58 58 58 55 53 V (KT) LGEM 110 111 108 104 100 89 81 75 69 63 57 53 51 50 50 49 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 4 1 2 4 7 7 8 8 7 6 7 5 7 17 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -4 -1 0 0 -4 -2 2 1 -1 -1 -4 -4 -2 -6 -4 SHEAR DIR 68 49 63 19 4 48 102 109 141 119 129 108 67 41 332 331 335 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.1 26.4 26.9 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.5 25.7 25.9 26.4 26.6 26.5 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 137 137 134 127 132 135 134 134 128 119 122 128 130 127 125 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 60 57 56 52 50 48 51 51 53 52 50 50 51 48 47 43 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 16 15 15 15 16 15 15 14 14 13 12 11 11 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 2 7 9 10 6 0 -5 -14 -13 -13 0 -7 -4 -2 5 3 -1 200 MB DIV 18 10 -3 -10 -20 10 -5 -14 -43 -57 -21 -22 -29 -34 -17 -12 -10 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 -1 -3 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 -1 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 1423 1478 1533 1603 1676 1803 1946 2083 2198 2358 2176 2016 1896 1726 1519 1365 1263 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.0 14.8 14.7 14.6 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.9 14.8 14.5 14.1 13.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.2 121.8 122.4 123.2 124.1 125.7 127.5 129.5 131.1 133.0 135.0 136.7 138.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 8 8 8 9 9 8 10 9 8 8 10 10 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 5 6 10 11 4 0 5 9 8 5 1 0 0 1 2 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -14. -22. -29. -36. -41. -45. -49. -51. -52. -54. -57. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -2. -6. -14. -21. -28. -36. -42. -46. -50. -52. -52. -52. -55. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 15.1 121.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062021 FELICIA 07/16/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.86 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 705.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.11 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.04 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.8% 6.3% 7.5% 6.2% 6.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.9% 2.1% 2.5% 2.1% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 7.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062021 FELICIA 07/16/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##