* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FELICIA EP062021 07/16/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 115 111 107 102 93 85 74 67 61 56 50 47 46 45 43 42 V (KT) LAND 115 115 111 107 102 93 85 74 67 61 56 50 47 46 45 43 42 V (KT) LGEM 115 114 109 103 97 87 80 73 67 63 57 51 46 42 38 34 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 5 3 2 6 6 7 1 2 2 2 10 10 12 18 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -1 1 -1 -4 0 5 4 1 2 -1 -1 0 -2 8 SHEAR DIR 26 38 25 28 40 85 101 138 83 148 300 348 319 317 315 329 323 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.0 26.6 26.7 27.1 26.9 27.1 26.7 26.0 25.7 26.2 26.5 26.6 26.4 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 136 133 129 130 134 132 134 130 123 120 125 128 129 127 128 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 56 54 50 49 49 47 51 51 52 51 50 49 48 44 42 41 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 16 17 17 17 16 14 13 12 13 10 10 9 8 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 8 12 10 8 9 7 -5 -11 -14 -4 -15 -9 -3 14 12 12 0 200 MB DIV 24 4 -26 -23 -18 -4 -5 -14 -43 -48 -30 -13 -30 -51 -14 -4 -32 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -3 0 0 0 2 1 0 -1 0 -1 0 1 LAND (KM) 1488 1558 1630 1695 1762 1903 2032 2159 2309 2254 2090 1923 1766 1600 1434 1275 1126 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 14.9 14.7 14.7 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.9 14.8 14.6 14.3 13.9 13.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 122.0 122.8 123.6 124.4 125.2 127.0 128.8 130.6 132.4 134.2 135.9 137.7 139.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 8 12 8 3 1 2 8 6 8 2 0 0 0 1 2 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 510 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -16. -25. -33. -40. -46. -51. -55. -57. -58. -60. -63. -66. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -8. -7. -10. -10. -9. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -4. -8. -13. -22. -30. -41. -48. -54. -59. -65. -68. -69. -70. -72. -73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 15.0 122.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062021 FELICIA 07/16/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.13 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.84 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 790.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.01 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.04 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.92 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 2.0% 3.1% 2.0% 2.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 0.7% 1.0% 0.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062021 FELICIA 07/16/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##