* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FELICIA EP062021 07/17/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 113 109 104 100 93 84 74 68 62 56 50 47 45 43 42 40 V (KT) LAND 115 113 109 104 100 93 84 74 68 62 56 50 47 45 43 42 40 V (KT) LGEM 115 111 106 99 93 84 77 70 63 57 52 47 43 39 35 31 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 3 4 5 4 8 1 2 3 3 9 17 19 16 14 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 1 0 -2 -2 5 6 3 2 0 -1 -1 1 5 11 SHEAR DIR 51 36 39 14 59 69 111 195 61 5 321 337 333 340 348 331 300 SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.5 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.6 26.1 25.5 26.0 26.2 26.4 26.2 26.5 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 137 135 133 128 128 129 130 131 129 124 119 124 126 127 125 129 128 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.6 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 52 48 47 46 46 48 47 49 48 47 44 44 40 40 37 40 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 15 15 16 16 14 13 13 12 11 9 8 8 7 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 9 10 5 6 0 0 -18 -8 -12 -13 -12 -1 9 16 17 21 -5 200 MB DIV 4 -21 -24 -20 -11 9 -11 -18 -45 -40 -5 -31 -29 -14 -17 -7 -15 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -3 -3 -1 1 0 3 1 1 0 0 -3 -1 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1562 1626 1691 1751 1813 1942 2066 2216 2316 2132 1928 1713 1488 1314 1167 991 810 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 14.8 14.7 14.8 14.8 15.1 15.3 15.3 15.3 14.9 14.3 13.9 13.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 122.8 123.6 124.4 125.2 126.0 127.9 129.8 131.7 133.4 135.3 137.5 139.8 142.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 9 10 11 11 11 9 9 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 13 7 3 1 1 3 3 4 2 0 0 0 0 4 1 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 482 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -17. -26. -34. -41. -48. -53. -57. -58. -60. -62. -65. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 12. 11. 10. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -11. -15. -22. -31. -41. -47. -53. -59. -65. -68. -70. -72. -73. -75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 14.8 122.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062021 FELICIA 07/17/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.10 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.85 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 836.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.02 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 1.1% 1.7% 1.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 0.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062021 FELICIA 07/17/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##