* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FELICIA EP062021 07/17/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 111 105 100 95 87 77 71 62 56 49 44 41 38 38 38 36 V (KT) LAND 115 111 105 100 95 87 77 71 62 56 49 44 41 38 38 38 36 V (KT) LGEM 115 109 102 94 89 80 74 69 62 55 50 45 40 35 32 29 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 4 7 8 6 5 4 3 2 2 14 21 20 15 17 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 0 -1 -2 -3 2 4 6 4 4 1 -3 1 8 10 7 SHEAR DIR 26 359 356 34 50 69 141 351 16 21 298 326 326 328 331 298 297 SST (C) 27.5 27.1 26.8 26.5 26.6 26.8 26.6 26.8 25.9 25.4 25.8 26.0 26.2 26.3 26.7 26.7 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 138 134 131 128 129 131 130 132 122 117 122 125 126 127 130 130 125 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -52.7 -52.5 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 4 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 48 47 47 47 47 49 50 50 48 46 45 43 41 42 42 42 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 18 18 18 17 15 16 14 13 11 10 9 8 7 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 11 5 5 0 2 -10 -16 -11 -7 -3 0 6 19 23 19 9 -6 200 MB DIV -29 -28 -21 -18 -4 -22 4 -40 -27 -12 -34 -25 -13 -15 -38 -52 -43 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -4 -5 -4 -1 0 2 3 2 0 0 -1 -3 -3 0 0 LAND (KM) 1630 1691 1754 1815 1880 1999 2120 2298 2171 1967 1766 1537 1284 1106 983 869 763 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.6 14.5 14.7 14.8 15.2 15.4 15.4 15.3 14.9 14.3 13.9 13.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 123.5 124.3 125.0 125.9 126.8 128.8 130.6 132.8 134.8 136.9 139.1 141.6 144.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 13 12 10 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 9 4 2 1 1 5 3 3 0 0 0 0 3 1 3 4 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -17. -26. -34. -42. -49. -54. -58. -59. -61. -62. -65. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 4. 7. 10. 12. 12. 10. 9. 8. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -4. -4. -7. -8. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -10. -15. -20. -28. -38. -44. -53. -59. -66. -71. -74. -77. -77. -77. -79. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 14.6 123.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062021 FELICIA 07/17/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -20.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.07 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.74 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 851.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.01 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 0.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062021 FELICIA 07/17/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##