* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FELICIA EP062021 07/17/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 122 115 108 102 91 79 67 54 45 36 29 26 23 21 21 20 V (KT) LAND 125 122 115 108 102 91 79 67 54 45 36 29 26 23 21 21 20 V (KT) LGEM 125 119 110 101 94 83 76 68 57 49 42 36 31 27 23 19 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 8 8 7 6 4 2 1 4 6 11 19 30 38 40 44 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -1 -4 -3 0 5 9 5 6 0 -2 -5 -9 -3 -3 2 SHEAR DIR 350 353 18 25 49 73 213 328 347 287 314 316 301 307 296 279 277 SST (C) 27.2 26.7 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.4 26.4 26.1 25.5 25.3 25.4 26.3 26.3 26.9 26.4 26.2 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 135 130 128 129 130 127 128 125 119 117 118 127 128 134 128 126 125 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 4 4 5 4 5 5 6 5 700-500 MB RH 48 47 47 47 50 49 51 52 48 45 43 42 45 44 48 47 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 16 16 16 14 14 14 12 10 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 0 5 1 -1 -9 -24 -16 -5 -3 1 4 10 25 17 11 -6 -12 200 MB DIV -27 -32 -21 -13 -9 2 -12 -44 -14 -14 -23 -8 13 16 -9 -22 -22 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -6 -4 -2 1 1 4 1 2 0 0 -2 -1 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1691 1750 1812 1880 1943 2035 2171 2273 2023 1783 1543 1325 1108 923 776 666 615 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.9 15.0 15.5 15.8 15.7 15.4 14.9 14.4 13.9 13.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 124.2 125.1 125.9 126.9 127.8 129.6 131.6 133.7 136.2 138.7 141.3 143.8 146.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 11 12 12 13 12 13 12 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 5 2 1 2 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 4 1 9 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -10. -14. -23. -33. -43. -52. -60. -66. -70. -72. -72. -74. -77. -81. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 1. 5. 8. 10. 11. 10. 8. 5. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -13. -14. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -10. -17. -23. -34. -46. -58. -70. -80. -89. -96. -99.-102.-104.-104.-105. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 14.5 124.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062021 FELICIA 07/17/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 5.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -20.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.07 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 884.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 1.3% 1.6% 1.2% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062021 FELICIA 07/17/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##