* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN EP072021 07/17/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 41 46 53 60 63 61 56 52 48 45 42 40 35 30 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 41 46 53 60 63 61 56 52 48 45 42 40 35 30 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 35 37 40 43 42 39 36 33 31 31 30 29 27 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 7 7 3 7 3 11 12 5 8 6 9 5 5 13 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -3 1 2 5 9 1 -1 1 1 2 -1 1 -1 2 1 SHEAR DIR 358 342 13 46 41 324 336 323 343 356 359 354 333 326 271 253 265 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.2 27.6 27.7 26.2 25.5 24.8 24.5 25.0 24.7 24.1 24.7 24.2 23.8 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 152 147 140 142 127 119 112 109 114 110 104 110 105 101 107 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.0 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.0 -51.9 -51.6 -52.0 -51.5 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 75 72 71 70 71 66 62 60 59 55 49 44 44 42 40 39 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 16 18 20 21 24 25 24 22 21 19 18 17 16 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 3 0 -4 -9 -6 -8 -4 11 26 50 65 70 78 72 61 40 20 200 MB DIV 37 37 46 69 64 68 11 20 -10 -4 -35 -29 -23 -15 29 -13 -13 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -8 -11 -9 -14 -18 -10 -6 -4 -6 0 -1 3 4 9 10 LAND (KM) 484 560 618 625 652 767 932 1137 1356 1550 1769 1992 2218 2005 1768 1508 1226 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 11 11 11 12 13 13 12 13 12 12 11 11 12 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 11 8 5 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 15 CX,CY: -12/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 19. 21. 22. 22. 20. 19. 17. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 10. 14. 13. 11. 9. 7. 5. 3. 2. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 16. 23. 30. 33. 31. 26. 22. 18. 15. 12. 10. 5. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.5 108.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072021 SEVEN 07/17/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.43 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.72 4.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 98.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.58 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 18.2% 16.8% 15.9% 0.0% 16.4% 14.7% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 20.6% 8.6% 4.6% 1.5% 2.6% 0.4% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 13.2% 8.5% 6.9% 0.5% 6.3% 5.0% 0.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 14.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 4.0% 9.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072021 SEVEN 07/17/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##