* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FELICIA EP062021 07/17/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 120 114 108 101 89 78 65 55 45 36 29 26 25 24 26 28 V (KT) LAND 125 120 114 108 101 89 78 65 55 45 36 29 26 25 24 26 28 V (KT) LGEM 125 118 109 101 94 82 72 63 54 46 40 34 29 24 21 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 7 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 6 24 30 30 30 32 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -4 -2 0 4 5 5 2 3 0 -6 -3 -2 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 327 357 29 15 35 123 334 272 277 273 312 321 307 300 277 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.3 26.1 26.2 25.4 25.2 24.8 25.2 25.5 26.6 26.2 25.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 127 128 128 126 124 126 118 116 112 116 120 131 127 124 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 -53.1 -53.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 46 47 48 48 50 48 48 44 40 38 39 44 48 50 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 17 17 17 15 14 13 12 10 8 7 7 5 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 0 -6 -10 -17 -18 -11 0 4 11 13 21 20 17 10 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -25 -20 -30 -18 -18 1 -37 -65 -17 -35 -50 -19 -11 -7 -15 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -3 -2 -2 2 1 1 5 1 2 -1 0 0 3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1731 1789 1849 1905 1953 2075 2232 2143 1886 1630 1382 1139 936 754 606 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.9 15.0 15.3 15.5 15.9 16.1 15.9 15.5 15.2 14.9 14.4 13.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.9 125.7 126.6 127.6 128.5 130.5 132.6 134.9 137.5 140.1 142.7 145.5 148.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 9 10 11 12 13 13 13 14 14 15 15 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 1 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -15. -25. -34. -45. -54. -62. -69. -73. -74. -75. -77. -80. -84. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 2. 6. 9. 11. 10. 8. 6. 3. 1. 4. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -13. -14. -15. -14. -14. -14. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -17. -24. -36. -47. -60. -70. -80. -89. -96. -99.-100.-101. -99. -97. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 14.7 124.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062021 FELICIA 07/17/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 3.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -22.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.06 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 904.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 1.1% 1.4% 0.9% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062021 FELICIA 07/17/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##