* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP072021 07/17/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 48 52 58 63 63 60 54 49 44 40 35 31 27 22 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 48 52 58 63 63 60 54 49 44 40 35 31 27 22 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 44 46 50 50 48 43 39 35 33 31 29 26 23 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 6 2 3 8 9 12 8 9 13 7 9 6 8 15 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 3 4 4 7 4 2 2 1 1 2 0 0 0 1 1 SHEAR DIR 357 27 50 39 301 328 316 353 349 312 340 327 312 284 273 287 284 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.4 27.8 27.2 27.7 26.1 25.2 24.8 24.6 25.0 24.8 23.8 24.6 24.0 24.1 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 149 142 136 142 125 116 112 110 114 112 101 110 104 105 110 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 72 70 69 69 66 63 60 59 57 52 48 46 42 40 39 37 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 17 18 19 21 24 23 22 20 19 17 15 13 11 9 6 850 MB ENV VOR 2 -2 -5 -1 0 -11 -3 3 19 41 63 71 60 56 38 30 1 200 MB DIV 26 49 73 63 57 49 16 13 -11 -5 -22 -23 -3 -3 -11 -27 -13 700-850 TADV -1 -6 -11 -7 -6 -19 -11 -14 -5 -5 -4 -2 2 1 7 6 9 LAND (KM) 550 619 612 625 658 822 966 1147 1373 1565 1776 2001 2198 1930 1662 1352 1020 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.3 17.6 17.9 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.5 18.3 18.2 18.1 18.0 17.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.5 110.6 111.6 112.7 113.7 116.1 118.5 121.1 123.6 126.2 128.8 131.4 134.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 9 6 3 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 17. 18. 17. 16. 14. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 9. 9. 6. 4. 2. -1. -2. -5. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 23. 28. 28. 25. 19. 14. 9. 5. 0. -4. -8. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.9 109.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072021 GUILLERMO 07/17/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.45 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.83 5.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 133.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 -4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.90 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.4% 24.1% 21.1% 20.0% 11.7% 19.1% 15.4% 0.0% Logistic: 5.9% 22.6% 12.5% 6.8% 1.2% 3.3% 0.4% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.5% 15.8% 11.3% 9.0% 4.3% 7.5% 5.3% 0.2% DTOPS: 3.0% 25.0% 16.0% 11.0% 7.0% 10.0% 10.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072021 GUILLERMO 07/17/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##