* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FELICIA EP062021 07/18/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 114 108 102 96 85 74 64 53 42 34 29 27 27 26 28 28 V (KT) LAND 120 114 108 102 96 85 74 64 53 42 34 29 27 27 26 28 28 V (KT) LGEM 120 112 104 96 89 76 66 56 48 42 36 31 27 23 20 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 6 4 1 3 2 2 5 8 21 30 26 27 23 26 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 1 2 5 4 1 0 -3 -4 0 -1 -1 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 346 6 360 23 114 172 155 275 276 307 325 320 310 298 274 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 26.3 26.3 25.9 25.8 26.0 25.5 25.4 25.1 24.9 25.8 25.8 26.5 26.0 26.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 126 126 122 121 123 119 118 115 113 123 123 130 125 126 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.0 -52.1 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 47 48 48 48 50 50 47 41 40 38 42 45 52 51 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 16 16 15 13 13 11 9 8 7 6 6 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -2 -9 -18 -33 -24 -11 0 7 18 15 22 13 16 1 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -16 -18 -22 -18 -8 -21 -42 -32 -40 -34 -38 -25 -13 0 -20 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -3 -2 0 1 2 2 5 1 2 -1 1 1 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1767 1825 1872 1924 1981 2133 2263 2019 1766 1521 1279 1045 845 686 602 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.4 15.6 15.9 16.1 16.2 16.1 15.9 15.4 14.9 14.6 14.3 13.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 125.7 126.6 127.5 128.5 129.5 131.5 133.7 136.1 138.7 141.3 143.9 146.6 149.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 10 10 11 12 13 13 13 13 14 15 16 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -15. -24. -33. -43. -51. -59. -65. -69. -69. -71. -72. -76. -79. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. 1. 3. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -18. -24. -35. -46. -56. -67. -78. -86. -91. -93. -93. -94. -92. -92. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 15.1 125.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062021 FELICIA 07/18/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 4.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.09 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.84 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 865.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.92 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.8% 0.9% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062021 FELICIA 07/18/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##