* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP072021 07/18/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 43 47 50 55 56 56 52 47 43 39 35 31 26 22 18 V (KT) LAND 35 38 43 47 50 55 56 56 52 47 43 39 35 31 26 22 18 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 43 44 46 45 43 40 37 35 33 32 31 28 25 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 2 3 6 7 10 13 9 15 11 12 12 10 12 17 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 4 4 7 4 1 0 3 -1 0 0 -1 0 4 3 5 SHEAR DIR 22 18 24 315 337 319 334 359 354 348 3 334 322 314 290 299 261 SST (C) 28.8 28.3 27.8 27.2 27.4 26.3 25.6 24.9 24.6 24.8 24.5 24.9 24.5 24.1 23.8 24.4 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 153 148 142 136 139 127 120 113 110 112 109 113 109 105 102 108 113 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 700-500 MB RH 69 68 69 67 65 60 57 58 56 52 47 44 40 40 38 37 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 19 19 20 22 21 21 20 19 17 16 14 13 10 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -2 0 -1 -10 -5 1 14 39 61 57 58 50 41 22 8 -19 200 MB DIV 41 72 78 66 51 9 32 9 -9 -5 -12 -11 4 3 -16 -11 -9 700-850 TADV -6 -14 -8 -7 -13 -17 -10 -11 -5 -5 -2 -2 2 3 10 8 13 LAND (KM) 620 620 637 679 737 900 1067 1265 1492 1688 1892 2120 2043 1764 1485 1185 861 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.3 18.4 18.5 18.2 18.1 18.1 17.9 17.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.6 111.7 112.8 113.9 115.0 117.5 120.0 122.5 125.2 127.7 130.2 132.7 135.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 12 14 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 11 9 6 3 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. 14. 12. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 5. 3. 0. -1. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 12. 15. 20. 21. 21. 17. 12. 8. 4. -0. -4. -9. -13. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.3 110.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072021 GUILLERMO 07/18/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.63 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.49 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.82 5.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 149.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 -4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.04 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.92 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.3% 24.8% 21.6% 20.4% 12.1% 18.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.2% 22.8% 14.4% 7.4% 1.0% 1.4% 0.1% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.2% 15.9% 12.0% 9.3% 4.4% 6.7% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 3.0% 15.0% 7.0% 5.0% 4.0% 5.0% 4.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072021 GUILLERMO 07/18/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##