* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FELICIA EP062021 07/18/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 113 105 98 93 82 71 60 49 37 28 23 20 19 19 23 25 V (KT) LAND 120 113 105 98 93 82 71 60 49 37 28 23 20 19 19 23 25 V (KT) LGEM 120 111 102 93 86 74 65 57 50 42 36 30 25 21 17 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 6 5 2 1 4 5 8 14 31 39 33 27 29 35 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 2 2 2 1 0 1 -2 -8 -2 1 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 345 344 346 34 128 149 177 224 296 306 311 306 294 291 277 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 26.2 25.9 25.8 25.8 26.0 25.1 25.1 24.8 25.4 25.5 26.4 26.4 26.2 26.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 125 122 121 121 124 115 115 112 119 119 128 129 128 131 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.7 -53.0 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 4 5 5 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 48 48 48 48 49 46 42 39 39 41 46 49 53 54 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 17 16 16 15 13 13 11 10 9 8 7 6 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -9 -22 -33 -27 -18 -4 6 15 16 24 22 21 7 -7 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -12 -11 -18 -13 -9 -46 -20 -29 -43 -46 -2 0 -19 -29 -27 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -2 0 0 3 2 6 5 2 1 2 2 3 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1828 1875 1920 1989 2060 2218 2136 1884 1637 1367 1111 913 776 656 713 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.2 15.9 15.3 14.8 14.4 14.0 13.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 126.6 127.6 128.5 129.5 130.6 132.6 134.9 137.4 140.0 142.9 145.8 148.4 150.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 10 10 11 12 12 14 14 13 12 14 16 17 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 4 0 4 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -16. -24. -34. -44. -52. -60. -65. -69. -70. -71. -72. -75. -79. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 1. -2. -4. -5. -1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -15. -22. -27. -38. -49. -60. -71. -83. -92. -97.-100.-101.-101. -97. -95. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 15.3 126.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062021 FELICIA 07/18/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 3.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.84 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 872.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.7% 1.0% 0.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062021 FELICIA 07/18/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##