* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FELICIA EP062021 07/18/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 109 103 97 92 80 69 57 46 35 28 23 22 20 19 22 24 V (KT) LAND 115 109 103 97 92 80 69 57 46 35 28 23 22 20 19 22 24 V (KT) LGEM 115 107 99 91 84 73 63 55 47 40 35 30 25 21 17 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 1 2 4 3 5 5 9 17 35 38 30 27 31 39 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 2 3 3 3 4 4 0 -6 -5 0 0 -2 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 358 3 77 147 168 140 228 270 304 319 319 305 287 281 274 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 26.0 25.9 25.9 26.1 25.4 25.4 25.2 24.9 25.9 26.0 26.6 26.3 26.4 26.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 123 122 123 125 117 118 116 113 123 125 131 128 128 131 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 49 47 47 49 49 47 43 43 39 42 46 53 50 53 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 16 16 16 13 13 12 10 8 8 7 6 5 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -17 -30 -29 -25 -19 0 7 16 12 28 16 13 0 -16 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 -5 -12 -11 -36 -37 -43 -23 -46 -22 11 -5 5 -34 -28 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 2 0 0 0 1 2 6 2 1 1 3 4 4 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1879 1940 2004 2079 2158 2237 2003 1749 1491 1261 1032 832 710 629 603 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.8 15.9 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.1 15.6 14.9 14.4 14.1 13.8 13.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 127.6 128.6 129.6 130.7 131.8 133.9 136.2 138.8 141.6 144.2 146.9 149.7 152.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 10 12 13 13 13 14 14 13 11 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 9 1 1 3 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -13. -21. -31. -40. -48. -54. -59. -62. -63. -65. -66. -69. -73. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 5. 3. 0. -2. -4. -5. -2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -18. -23. -35. -46. -58. -69. -80. -87. -92. -93. -95. -96. -92. -91. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 15.6 127.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062021 FELICIA 07/18/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 8.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.10 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.94 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 862.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 1.1% 1.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062021 FELICIA 07/18/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##