* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP072021 07/18/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 52 54 57 58 56 52 49 44 40 35 31 25 21 16 N/A V (KT) LAND 45 49 52 54 57 58 56 52 49 44 40 35 31 25 21 16 N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 49 51 53 53 51 47 42 38 34 31 29 26 23 20 17 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 10 12 12 6 11 13 12 10 7 7 10 12 14 20 25 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 4 4 2 3 -2 0 3 2 4 -1 -1 2 3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 308 311 312 324 313 316 337 343 346 324 310 259 285 293 283 274 276 SST (C) 28.0 27.6 27.3 27.7 26.9 25.9 25.0 24.2 24.8 24.5 24.4 24.4 24.3 24.0 24.4 24.4 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 144 140 138 142 134 123 114 106 112 109 107 108 107 103 108 109 115 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -51.7 -52.1 -51.8 -52.3 -52.2 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 5 6 7 700-500 MB RH 69 67 64 62 61 61 59 56 51 47 43 40 43 41 38 36 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 17 19 21 20 20 20 19 17 15 13 11 9 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 7 8 -1 -8 -10 5 6 35 58 71 70 61 55 34 17 -14 -20 200 MB DIV 79 86 53 51 27 48 17 12 13 -21 15 -13 -11 -22 -15 -7 -6 700-850 TADV -1 -5 -13 -16 -7 -8 -10 -8 -9 -3 0 5 3 11 7 11 12 LAND (KM) 604 638 690 763 831 1006 1226 1467 1705 1935 2155 2031 1766 1506 1239 930 590 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.0 18.1 18.4 18.6 18.7 18.7 18.6 18.3 18.1 17.9 17.7 17.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.0 113.1 114.2 115.5 116.8 119.5 122.2 125.3 128.1 130.7 133.1 135.6 138.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 13 13 13 14 14 13 12 11 12 12 12 13 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 7 5 4 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 12. 13. 11. 7. 4. -1. -5. -10. -14. -20. -24. -29. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.8 112.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072021 GUILLERMO 07/18/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.50 3.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.48 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.57 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 213.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.67 -3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.53 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.31 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.3% 24.2% 20.2% 18.8% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 9.3% 5.6% 2.0% 0.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.6% 11.2% 8.6% 6.9% 3.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 6.0% 12.0% 7.0% 6.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072021 GUILLERMO 07/18/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##