* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FELICIA EP062021 07/18/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 102 93 87 81 70 59 48 36 28 23 19 18 20 23 26 28 V (KT) LAND 110 102 93 87 81 70 59 48 36 28 23 19 18 20 23 26 28 V (KT) LGEM 110 101 92 83 77 65 55 47 39 34 28 24 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 2 5 3 2 5 7 15 32 34 29 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 3 5 5 3 5 3 -3 -4 2 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 242 157 182 189 215 253 252 302 313 321 322 314 294 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.9 25.7 25.7 26.0 26.2 25.1 25.3 24.8 25.3 25.7 26.3 26.3 26.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 120 120 124 126 115 117 112 117 122 128 128 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 46 48 51 51 49 44 40 39 41 44 50 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 15 15 15 13 12 11 9 9 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -36 -31 -27 -23 -9 1 14 14 22 25 18 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -12 -7 -17 -33 -36 -40 -42 -34 -42 -37 -28 7 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 0 0 1 5 4 3 2 4 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1920 1985 2052 2138 2226 2133 1871 1609 1387 1163 938 758 666 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.0 15.5 14.8 14.3 14.0 13.7 13.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 128.5 129.5 130.5 131.6 132.7 134.9 137.5 140.2 142.7 145.3 148.1 151.0 153.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 12 13 13 12 13 14 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -12. -20. -28. -37. -44. -50. -54. -57. -58. -60. -62. -65. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -5. -4. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -17. -23. -29. -40. -51. -62. -74. -82. -87. -91. -92. -90. -87. -84. -82. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 15.9 128.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062021 FELICIA 07/18/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 12.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.06 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.92 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 802.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.53 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062021 FELICIA 07/18/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##