* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP072021 07/18/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 53 55 55 54 52 49 46 44 40 38 31 25 19 15 N/A V (KT) LAND 50 51 53 55 55 54 52 49 46 44 40 38 31 25 19 15 N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 52 52 52 52 48 44 41 39 37 35 32 29 25 21 18 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 11 6 7 10 8 7 7 7 9 14 16 17 22 26 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 3 0 0 0 -1 2 1 1 0 -1 -1 1 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 311 316 318 314 302 351 338 331 326 298 268 271 298 285 292 268 277 SST (C) 27.4 26.7 27.2 26.3 26.0 25.2 23.7 24.1 24.5 24.5 23.6 24.2 23.9 24.2 24.3 24.5 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 139 131 137 128 125 117 101 105 109 108 99 105 102 105 107 110 117 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -52.2 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.1 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 66 64 63 62 60 59 55 53 49 45 40 40 40 39 37 37 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 19 20 20 21 21 20 20 20 18 19 15 13 9 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 10 0 -12 -10 2 8 22 50 58 69 59 64 43 31 2 -15 -19 200 MB DIV 67 46 45 28 32 20 -6 -2 -14 0 6 -9 0 -19 -11 -30 -16 700-850 TADV -5 -12 -13 -6 -6 -17 -5 -13 -4 -4 2 4 8 9 9 10 10 LAND (KM) 595 654 731 809 893 1113 1348 1589 1825 2054 2119 1860 1579 1329 1075 775 414 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.6 18.8 18.9 19.0 19.0 19.0 18.8 18.6 18.4 18.1 17.9 17.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.1 114.3 115.5 116.9 118.3 121.1 124.1 127.1 129.8 132.3 134.7 137.2 139.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 14 12 11 12 12 12 11 13 16 17 HEAT CONTENT 4 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. -0. 0. -3. -6. -9. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -4. -6. -10. -12. -19. -25. -31. -35. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 18.4 113.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072021 GUILLERMO 07/18/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.38 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.40 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 262.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.9 56.6 to 0.0 0.56 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.19 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.8% 20.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 2.6% 1.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 7.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 7.0% 4.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072021 GUILLERMO 07/18/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##